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【华泰联合证券】华丽家族:受制业绩承诺,资产买卖频繁

華泰聯合證券 ·  Oct 23, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Today, the company announced its three-quarter report. From January to September, the company achieved operating income of 98.93 million yuan, an increase of 39.7% over the previous year; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 21.66 million yuan, an increase of 95.1% over the previous year; and basic earnings per share of 0.04 yuan. A 50% increase over the previous year. The company's profit for the first three quarters mainly came from investment income obtained from the sale of 85% of the shares of the subsidiary Shanghai Changchunteng Real Estate Co., Ltd. The company currently has few properties for sale; there are only two: the Suzhou Taishang Lake project and the Shanghai Huijingtiandi project, respectively. Among them, the single-family villa portion of the Suzhou Taishang Lake project phase I is expected to be carry-over within 10 years, while the remaining portion of the first phase, the second phase of the townhouse, and the Shanghai Huijing Tiandi project will be carried over starting in '11. The company's project is positioned as a high-end luxury property, and is greatly affected by macro-control. The first phase of the Suzhou Taishang Lake Project's single-family villa sales were slow in the third quarter, and the second phase of the townhouse is expected to be launched in November. Cautious pricing combined with reasonable total prices is expected to be more attractive in the Suzhou market. The Shanghai Huijing Tiandi Project opened in June and launched 200 units. Currently, 44 units have been sold. The average cumulative transaction price is 51,000 yuan/square meter. The sales rate is slower than that of ordinary houses. Subject to performance promises, the company once again sold shares. According to the majority shareholders' promises during asset restructuring in 2008, the company's 10-year net profit must reach 510 million yuan. In October, the company announced the transfer of the right to transfer 48.4761% of Hongsheng Real Estate's shares to Sohou Shanghai. The transaction will bring about 390 million yuan in net profit to the listed company. Coupled with the partial settlement of the Suzhou Taishang Lake project at the end of the year, the profit target for the full year of 10 years can basically be achieved. With the extensive carry-over of the Suzhou Taishang Lake project and the Shanghai Huijingtiandi project in '11, performance is expected to increase by 30%. In '12, the Shanghai Fuxing Tiandi project will participate in settlement, and the entire company's operations will be on the right track. Furthermore, the company plans to use 550 million yuan to acquire 100% of Guangdong Huafu's shares, thereby indirectly holding 40% of Huatai Great Wall Futures Co., Ltd. The company is optimistic about the future development of the futures industry, and hopes that through diversified development, the company's assets will be rationally allocated and the impact of real estate regulation on the company's performance fluctuations will be leveled. Based on the basic fulfillment of the 10-year performance promise, we maintain the correct company profit forecast. The 10-11 EPS is 0.96 yuan and 1.28 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE is 14.3X and 10.7X, maintaining the increase in holdings rating. Risk warning: The impact of real estate regulation policies on the sales progress of the company's current projects.

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