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【华泰联合证券】六国化工:受益行业景气,业绩显著增长

華泰聯合證券 ·  Jul 26, 2011 00:00  · Researches

According to the company's semi-annual report, there was a sharp increase in revenue and profit. In the first half of the year, the company achieved operating income of 1,575 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%, gross profit margin of 9.87%; operating profit of 78.83 million yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 64.62 million yuan, net profit after deduction of 64.2 million yuan, up 61%, 39%, and 52% year-on-year respectively. Earnings per share for the first half of the year were 0.12 yuan. Due to the large increase in product prices, the company's performance slightly exceeded our expectations. The overall domestic market for ammonium phosphate and compound fertilizer was good in the first half of the year. High international phosphate fertilizer prices are driving the domestic ammonium phosphate and compound fertilizer industry boom. The average price of diammonium phosphate rose by 450 to 550 yuan/ton year on year, or nearly 20%; monoammonium rose more than 1,000 yuan/ton year on year, an increase of more than 50%; compound fertilizer rose 750-850 yuan/ton year on year, an increase of about 45%. We expect that under the high prices of international agricultural products, international and domestic agrochemical products will still be booming. The growth in the company's performance mainly benefits from the sentiment of the industry. Monoammonium benefited the most, with gross margin increasing by 9.3 percentage points, mainly due to the increase in domestic binary compound fertilizer exports, increased procurement of raw materials, and price increases; we estimate that sales of diammonium increased by about 7%; the company's direct exports were only 43 million yuan, a decrease of 42% over the previous year, and the estimated export volume did not exceed 20,000 tons. The increase in the company's performance mainly benefited from the domestic fertilizer boom. There was a slight increase in the three fees. The company's three expenses ratio is 4.76%, still at a low level. Management expenses are 40.67 million, an increase of 43% over the previous year, mainly an increase in employee remuneration, asset depreciation, and amortization expenses; an increase of 13% in operating expenses, which is related to an increase in sales; and a decrease of 600,000 yuan in the company's financial expenses due to lower interest expenses. As required for engineering construction, the company's long-term loans increased to 112 million, an increase of 400% over the previous year, but short-term loans fell from 206 million to 140 million, and the company's balance ratio was 33%, which is still low. The company's construction projects are being carried out in an orderly manner. The 30,000 tons/year industrial monoammonium project was put into operation in the first half of the year. With the exception of the 800,000 tons/year phosphate project, the remaining 280,000 tons/year ammonia synthesis projects were carried out in an orderly manner. Investment advice: The price increase of the company's products exceeded our expectations. We raised the 11-year average price of diammonium from 2,870 yuan/ton to 2,940 yuan/ton. The company's profit forecast after dilution in 2011 was raised from 0.19 yuan to 0.24 yuan, corresponding to 40 times PE. The valuation among similar companies is still high, maintaining a “neutral” rating. Risk warning: The fertilizer industry is affected by weather factors, etc., and demand or prices have dropped drastically. The country introduced strict policies to restrict the export of phosphate fertilizer and compound fertilizer; the company's raw material prices rose sharply.

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