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【天相投资】六国化工:三季度磷肥景气度高企

天相投資 ·  Oct 24, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The company's main business is the production and sale of diammonium phosphate, compound fertilizer, and monoammonium phosphate. The location advantage is obvious. It has the cost advantage of sulfuric acid supply from the controlling shareholder, and convenient water transportation has reduced transportation costs for phosphate ore, and is close to Henan, Shandong, a major downstream agricultural province. Operating profit increased significantly. In the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income of 2,565 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.38%; operating profit of 132.14 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 85.29%; net profit attributable to parent company owners of 119.92 million yuan, an increase of 65.33%; and basic earnings per share of 0.21 yuan/share. There has been a significant increase in overall gross margin. In the first three quarters, the company's consolidated gross profit margin was 10.3%, an increase of 1.62 percentage points over the previous year. We believe that the increase in the price of phosphate fertilizer products has effectively covered the rise in the cost of phosphate ore, and from a long-term perspective, the rigid demand for phosphate fertilizer determines the long-term upward trend of phosphate fertilizer and phosphate ore prices. The ability to control expenses during the period is still excellent. In the first three quarters, the company's annual expenses rate was 4.58%, down 0.01 percentage points from the previous year. The balance ratio is lower than 40%, but the rate of return of capital in the current period has declined, and receivables have increased at a higher rate, increasing operating pressure, leading to a large increase in short-term loans and negative operating cash flow. Benefit from the integration of the phosphate fertilizer industry. Industry integration has fundamentally raised the costs of small enterprises by increasing access and raising recycling requirements, and these have done a good job for the company, and there is no cost burden; secondly, as one of the few leading phosphate fertilizer consumers in the eastern region, it makes sense for the company to obtain ore resources. The company's business philosophy is clear. Under the premise of having an advantage in the supply of sulfuric acid, it will further increase the self-sufficiency rate of synthetic ammonia and ore, which will have stronger cost control capabilities. As a fund-raising project, the 800,000 tons/year phosphate ore project will be put into operation within the year and may contribute to performance during the year. The company has phosphate resources and plans to add 240,000 tons of diammonium production capacity, further strengthening the company's leading position in the industry. Maintain an investment rating of “excess holdings.” We expect the company's earnings per share for 2011-2013 to be 0.25 yuan, 0.41 yuan, and 0.61 yuan respectively. Based on stock prices on October 24, the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratios are 47 times, 28 times, and 19 times, respectively. We are optimistic about the company's future development prospects and maintain an investment rating of “increased holdings.” Risk warning: The increase in the price of phosphate ore is greater than the increase in the company's products. The phosphate ore project could not be successfully put into operation.

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