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【中金公司】六国化工:业绩略低于预期,维持中性评级

中金股份 ·  Mar 28, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Results for 2010 fell slightly short of expectations: Rokukoku Chemical released its 2010 annual report. We achieved full-year operating income of 2,733 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.27%, total profit of 104 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97.34%, and net profit of 82 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.18%, a combined earnings of 0.32 yuan per share, slightly lower than our expectations. The company's 2010 distribution plan is to transfer to 6 shares for every 10 shares and distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares. The positive recovery of the international fertilizer market has boosted China's phosphorus fertilizer market. Strengthen enterprise strategic alliances with large upstream suppliers of high-quality phosphate ore to improve the company's industrial chain. Negative: Phosphorus chemical downstream products are seriously homogenized and competition is fierce, putting a lot of pressure on the company to improve its performance. Development trends: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “Entry Requirements for Ammonium Phosphate Production (Draft for Comments)”, which stipulates policies such as the layout of production enterprises, including not building or renovating or expanding wet phosphoric acid and supporting monoammonium phosphate and diammonium diammonium phosphate plants within three years; at the same time, it has put forward target requirements for existing ammonium phosphate plants, and enterprises that fail to meet the requirements must be shut down. The announcement of these entry conditions will benefit existing large-scale manufacturers of diammonium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate. Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect the company's 11-12 year performance forecasts to be 0.50 yuan and 0.55 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 31 times and 29 times, respectively. Maintain a “neutral” rating. Risks: 1. The price of phosphate fertilizer is subject to policy restrictions such as national tariffs. 2. The price of raw materials continues to rise.

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