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【申银万国证券】六国化工:走在磷肥一体化的路上

申萬宏源 ·  Oct 24, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Earnings in a single quarter hit a record high since 2008. The company achieved revenue of 1,909 million yuan and net profit of 67.09 million yuan in the 1st to 3rd quarter of 2011, up -6.60% and 70.75%, respectively; EPS of 0.21 yuan, higher than 0.18 yuan in our quarterly report forecast. Among them, the third quarter achieved revenue of 989 million yuan and net profit of 46.3 million yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 5.86% and 22.10%, respectively, over the previous quarter, and an EPS of 0.09 yuan in a single quarter. The main reason for exceeding expectations is that the company's strong exports of phosphate fertilizer and compound fertilizer products are strong, mainly reflecting export indicators such as sales tax and surcharges reaching 16 million yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 421% over the previous quarter. The profits of integrated phosphate fertilizer companies will improve in the medium to long term. On the one hand, spurred by the general background of industry integration, declining quality, and rising comprehensive costs, etc., domestic phosphate ore prices will continue to rise, and enterprises integrating mineral fertilizer will clearly benefit; at the same time, during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, there will be no new construction, renovation and expansion of wet phosphoric acid and supporting phosphate fertilizer projects, which will benefit the overall profit of the phosphate fertilizer industry in the long term. Production capacity for phosphate ore, synthetic ammonia, etc. is gradually put in, and integration is gradually improved. The company owns the only phosphate mine in East China, the Susong Phosphate Mine in Anhui Province, and has completed basic construction of 800,000 tons/phosphate ore production capacity; a 280,000-ton ammonia synthesis plant and other phosphate fertilizer production expansion projects are also under active construction. Combining the rich sulfuric acid resources in the Tongling region, the company will gradually achieve upstream and downstream integration of phosphate fertilizer and strengthen the company's profitability. Give a neutral rating. The company's 2011-2012 EPS is estimated to be 0.27 yuan and 0.31 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 2.4 times PB, 11 times 39 times, and PE in 2012, 33 times PE, giving it a neutral rating.

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