I. Overview of events

A few days ago, we visited Hunan Post Technology and had a detailed communication and exchange on the operation of Hunan Post science and technology business, the future development plan of the business and the asset restructuring of the Post Group.

Second, analysis and judgment:

It has a monopoly position in the postal industry, and its operation is still sound in the face of the harsh market environment.

Hunan Post Technology is the only listed company in the domestic postal industry, mainly engaged in postal software development, system integration and product business. The company has a monopoly position in the postal industry, such as postage machines, envelope printers and other products. Although the worsening competitive environment of the IT industry has a great impact on the company's profitability, the company has a profound technology accumulation in the postal industry, has a strong competitive advantage, and the company is relatively sound in operation, and the company's revenue has remained stable in the past five years.

Multi-faceted attack in 2011, trying to open up new revenue growth points of the company.

In 2011, the company will actively expand to industries other than postal services, and plan to explore new growth points in many aspects in major business development:

1) GPS application. The company has been working on the GPS application project of postal cars, and gradually began to expand into other industries (such as tobacco, public security, taxis and other fields).

2) Security system. The company has the development experience of postal security, and what the company developed before is the security of postal depository, which requires high technical strength and qualification, which makes it have enough accumulation in technology. at present, it has tried to open the market step by step from Changsha.

3) jointly promote the layout of postage machines to end customers and build a self-service network for postage customers. The development of postage system in China is relatively slow, foreign countries have already realized the layout of postage machines to enterprise terminal customers, but the relevant domestic network construction is not perfect, which will become the trend of postage business development. Due to the company's advantages in postage machines and envelope printer products, this development model will be the first to open the situation of the fist business.

4) the application system of government professional information. The company has developed a large number of similar professional management systems in the postal system before, with sufficient technology accumulation, which provides a solid foundation for the company to develop systems in other industries.

The postal group plans to give the company a great deal of imagination in the reorganization of the company's assets.

The actual controller of the company is China Post Group Corporation (figure 5). The Post Group has been planning to reorganize the company, and many high-quality assets (or businesses) of the Post Group are likely to be injected into the company. Although it is still impossible to determine the specific object of injection, and the company itself cannot play a decisive role in the conduct of the matter, the background of the postal group provides a great imagination for the restructuring of the company.

Third, profit forecast and investment suggestions

It will take some time for the company to open up new markets. Although the company has a strong market advantage within the postal industry, the gradual deterioration of the industry competition environment and the high cost during the company period have a great impact on the company's profitability. Therefore, without considering asset restructuring, the company's fundamentals can not be fundamentally improved in the short term. It is estimated that the operating income from 2010 to 2012 is 324 million yuan, 378 million yuan and 398 million yuan, and the basic earnings per share are 0.01,0.06,0.1 yuan. At present, corresponding to the higher PE, the company is given a "neutral" rating with a valuation of 6-14 yuan per share.