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【华泰联合证券】六国化工:业绩符合预期,期待更好发展

華泰聯合證券 ·  Mar 28, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The performance was in line with expectations. The company reported in 2010 that it achieved operating income of 2.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%, total profit of 104 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 87.1 million yuan, an increase of 50% over the previous year, and an additional diluted EPS of 0.25 yuan, which is basically in line with expectations. Production and sales have declined, and gross profit has increased. The company has evolved from “sales volume expansion” to “efficiency enhancement”, and the revenue structure has improved. In 10 years, the production of phosphorus compound fertilizer was 1.02 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 76,000 tons; the average price of diammonium in China rose about 15% year on year in 10 years, the company's revenue fell 6.3%, and the estimated sales volume fell 20%. The company's gross margin increased 3.4 percentage points to 8.61%. Of revenue, exports grew 743.2%, and gross profit margin was 18%, above the level of domestic sales of 8%, and contribution to gross profit increased from 0.7% to 11%. Monoammonium, which had a gross profit margin of 11%, increased 16%, while diammonium (8% gross profit margin) fell 16%. There was a slight increase in the three fee rates. The company's three cost rates have remained low in the industry. In 10 years, the company's expense ratio increased slightly from 3.46% to 4.35%, increasing expenses by about 18 million. Among these, the increase was mainly a 98% increase in transportation costs in sales expenses, a 59% increase in sales and service expenses, and a 25% increase in employee remuneration in management expenses. Inventories grow and reserve for later sales. The company's inventory at the end of the year increased by 184 million yuan over the same period last year, an increase of 51%, mainly due to the increase in the prices of some of the company's raw materials and the company's large supply volume at the beginning of the year 11. The company increased reserves of corresponding raw materials and finished products. The company's advance accounts increased 20% year on year to 364 million yuan. In 2011, the phosphate fertilizer trend was positive. We expect the global phosphoric acid operating rate to reach 80% in 2011, which is only lower than the level of 85% in 2007. Global phosphate fertilizer prices will rise, and the American Gulf will reach 615-618 US dollars/ton, up 40% from the low in July '10. Morocco's OCP will raise diammonium by another 10 US dollars to 665 US dollars/ton CFR in April 11. Due to high global agricultural product prices, China's high tariff restrictions on exports, and the continued suspension of ammonium phosphate production in Tunisia, we expect international ammonium phosphate prices to continue to be high. Low tariffs on phosphate fertilizer exports from June to September will stimulate a phased rise in domestic phosphate fertilizer prices. Investment advice. We expect the company to maintain a “neutral” rating of 0.30, 0.38, and 0.46 yuan of EPS in 11-13, 52, 41, and 34 times PE. The “Ammonium Phosphate Production Entry Conditions” will benefit the company's development in the medium to long term. Risk warning. Demand for international and domestic phosphate fertilizers has declined sharply due to weather factors, etc.; the state has introduced strict policies to restrict phosphate fertilizer exports; and the prices of the company's raw materials such as sulfuric acid, liquid ammonia, and phosphate ore have risen sharply.

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