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【华泰证券】六国化工:磷肥行业高景气度延续,公司外延式扩张可期

[Huatai] Chemical industry of the six countries: the phosphate fertilizer industry has continued its magnificent demeanor, and the company's epitaxial expansion is expected.

華泰證券 ·  Mar 26, 2012 00:00  · Researches

The company recently released its 2011 annual report, with operating income of 3.35 billion yuan during the reporting period, an increase of 23% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 133 million yuan, an increase of 63% over the same period last year. In 2011, the prosperity of the phosphate fertilizer industry is relatively high, and the operation of each quarter is stable, of which the second and third quarters are the peak season of production and marketing, with sales revenue about 13% higher than the annual average, while the off-season sales in the first and fourth quarters are lower than the annual average of about 10%. The profitability of the four quarters basically fluctuated little, between 911%.

Judging from the operating situation in recent years, the 2008 financial crisis caused a sharp drop in phosphate fertilizer prices and a sharp decline in product profitability, which began to rise year by year since the low point in 2009. In 2011, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin was 10.5%, basically returning to the level before 2008. From the perspective of the future situation of the phosphate fertilizer industry, although the phosphate fertilizer industry has excess capacity, due to its resource attributes, the higher prosperity will continue to be maintained, and the price of DAP products will be maintained at 3100 yuan / ton.

At the company level, with the acquisition of 51 per cent stake in Jiangxi Guixi Chemical Fertilizer Company at the end of 2011, the production capacity of phosphate and compound fertilizer will be expanded to 2 million tons. the company expects to produce about 1.86 million tons of phosphate and compound fertilizer in 2011, an increase of about 60 per cent over 1.17 million tons in 2011. The 280000-ton synthetic ammonia project will be put into production in 2012. synthetic ammonia is the main raw material for the production of phosphate and compound fertilizer. the commissioning of this project will effectively reduce the production cost of phosphate and compound fertilizer. 800000 tons of phosphate rock mining and separation project has been put into production, which will increase the self-sufficiency rate of phosphate ore and reduce the cost of phosphate and compound fertilizer. Therefore, it is expected that the company's comprehensive gross profit margin will gradually increase in the next two years.

The earnings forecast results show that the earnings per share in 2012, 2013 and 2014 are 0.38,0.48,0.57 yuan respectively, and the corresponding P / E ratios are 28.2,22.1 and 18.9 times, respectively. In terms of valuation level, the current valuation is basically the same as the average valuation of the chemical industry, and the company is given a "recommended" rating considering that the company is likely to make a breakthrough in the field of wet-process phosphoric acid and fine phosphorus chemical industry in the future.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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