share_log

【群益证券(香港)】柳化股份:农资市场向好,下半年业绩有望环比回升

羣益證券(香港) ·  Aug 9, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Conclusions and suggestions: The company is one of the major domestic manufacturers of coal-to-urea, ammonium nitrate, nitric acid, and hydrogen peroxide. In the first half of the year, profits increased markedly compared to the same period last year due to the recovery in prices of some products and an increase in production. Market demand for ammonium nitrate and hydrogen peroxide is expected to remain strong in the second half of the year, mainly optimistic that demand in the fall planting market will drive urea prices. Coupled with the official commissioning of the Xinyi Coal Mine, the company's profits will be further strengthened. We expect the company's 2010 and 2011 EPS to be 0.327 and 0.639 yuan respectively; dynamic PE is 32.1 times and 16.5 times, giving investment advice on purchases. The company achieved operating income of 973 million yuan in the first half of 2010, an increase of 45.54% over the previous year; realized net profit attributable to the parent company of 46.5034 million yuan, compared with a loss of -9.429,700 yuan in the same period last year; and earnings per share of 0.12 yuan. Among them, net profit was 1.83 million yuan in the second quarter, down 26% from the previous month, which is basically in line with our expectations. The company's gross margin for the first half of the year increased to 19.3% from 12.4% in the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the company's production system was stable and production increased; furthermore, the market for some products, such as nitric acid and ammonium nitrate, picked up, and prices rebounded; in addition, by adjusting the product structure, the company increased production volume of nitric acid series products, which increased the company's overall profit. Since 2010, the growth rate of domestic infrastructure investment has remained high, driving demand for explosives. Market demand for ammonium nitrate, which is one of the raw materials, is strong. The company's ammonium nitrate ex-factory price increased markedly compared to the same period last year. Revenue in the first half of the year was 208 million, and YOY increased 55.8%; operating profit margin increased 11.5 percentage points to 33.3% year on year. The country will continue to increase infrastructure construction in the second half of the year. In particular, demand for explosives for post-disaster reconstruction will continue to improve the ammonium nitrate market, further support prices, and maintain a good level of profit. In the company's main business, the urea market has had a certain impact on demand due to too many disasters in various parts of the country this year, making it difficult for prices to increase significantly. In the first half of 2010, the revenue of urea products fell 14.55% compared to 2009, and the operating profit margin decreased by 2.82 percentage points to 1.61% year on year. However, the disastrous weather also caused agricultural product prices to rise. In addition, in order for the country to stabilize grain production throughout the year, encourage post-disaster replanting, and increase subsidies for growing grain in some regions, we believe it will have a driving effect on urea demand in the second half of the year. We expect that the urea market may show signs of recovery, leading to an increase in company profits. At the end of 2009, the company's shares in Liuzhou Shengqiang Chemical Co., Ltd. increased from 60% to 99%, the second phase of the 100,000-ton hydrogen peroxide project has also been put into operation, and the total equity production capacity of hydrogen peroxide has increased to 200,000 tons. In the first half of the year, hydrogen peroxide production increased 70% year on year, business revenue was 180 million yuan, and net profit was 24.99 million yuan. In the second half of the year, the company continued to increase its marketing efforts and develop new customers. As market prices stabilized, the profit contribution increased along with sales volume. In the first half of the year, Guizhou Xinyi Mining Co., Ltd., which held 90% of the company, basically met the trial production conditions and entered the coal mine safety inspection stage, achieving revenue of 52.47 million yuan and gross profit of 5.03 million yuan. The total planned production capacity of the mine's three mining areas has reached 900,000 tons. With the official commencement of production, the profit contribution has further increased. We expect the company to achieve net profit of 131 million yuan and 255 million yuan in 2010 and 2011, an increase of 534.6% and 95.2% over the previous year; EPS of 0.327 and 0.639 yuan, respectively; and dynamic PE of 32.1 times and 16.5 times, respectively, giving investment advice on purchases.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment