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【宏源证券】柳化股份:渐入佳境,业绩步入稳定增长期

宏源證券 ·  May 11, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Thanks to regional and brand advantages, the company's urea business is running smoothly. Under expectations of natural gas price increases, urea's profitability is expected to further increase. Although there is a serious overcapacity of domestic urea production capacity, the company, as the largest coalhead urea manufacturer in the two regions, continues to produce at full capacity even when the urea production capacity expands to 300,000 tons/year, and the regional sales price is the highest in the country. When the rise in natural gas prices is almost a foregone conclusion, the cost of gaseous urea is bound to rise, and the competitiveness of the company's coal head urea is expected to further improve. Driven by domestic investment and economic recovery, demand for nitric acid and ammonium nitrate is strong, which is the company's main source of profit. Nitric acid and ammonium nitrate have always been the company's most popular products, and have maintained a gross profit margin of more than 25% over the years. Driven by domestic investment of 4 trillion dollars and rapid economic recovery in Guangdong, demand for nitric acid and ammonium nitrate is strong due to the recovery in various downstream fields such as explosives, electronics, and dyes. The hydrogen peroxide business is growing strongly, and production capacity will be increased by 100,000 tons by the end of this year. Liuzhou Shengqiang Chemical, a holding subsidiary, currently has a production capacity of 200,000 tons of hydrogen peroxide, of which 39% of the newly acquired shares will be reflected in this year's performance. In view of the current situation where hydrogen peroxide is in short supply, the company plans to add 100,000 tons of production capacity by the end of this year. At that time, this business alone can contribute more than 50 million yuan in gross profit. Earnings from the coal business and CDM are expected to be the icing on the cake. In order to improve the industrial chain, the company has completed the acquisition of Guizhou Xinyi Coal Mine and Aozichong Coal Mine respectively in the past two years. After construction and technical reform, it can be fully put into production this year, and is expected to produce 300,000 tons of coal, contributing about 40 million dollars in profit. Furthermore, according to the emission reduction agreement for the nitric acid exhaust gas nitric oxide CDM project signed earlier by the company and Mitsubishi of Japan, the first batch of revenue is expected to be confirmed in the middle of the year, and revenue is expected to increase by 20 million yuan. Profit forecast: With the full release of coal and hydrogen peroxide production capacity this year and next, and the traditional brand and regional advantages of ammonium nitrate and urea, plus expectations for future asset injection, earnings per share in 2010 and 2011 are expected to be 0.61 and 0.74 yuan respectively, giving a “buy rating”.

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