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【国海证券】柳化股份:2010年业绩重新步入增长轨迹

國海證券 ·  Apr 16, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The company announced that in 2009, it achieved operating income of 1.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.84%; realized total profit of 32 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 71.09%; and realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 28 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 68.94%, and earnings per share of 0.08 yuan. The company's profit distribution plan is to distribute 1 yuan in cash for every 10 shares and 2 bonus shares; at the same time, the capital is increased by 3 shares for every 10 shares from the Capital Provident Fund. Profit distribution schemes help improve stock liquidity. Affected by the financial crisis in 2009, the prices of the company's main products, urea, concentrated nitric acid, and ammonium nitrate products, were low, and operating rates declined. The operating income and net profit declined sharply in 2009, assuming certain asset impairment losses. The company's old system for synthetic ammonium filling is undergoing technical reform, and the production capacity will be expanded from 300,000 tons to 400,000 tons, which will be completed within the year. With the acquisition of most of Shengqiang Chemical's remaining shares, Shengqiang's hydrogen peroxide uses Guangdong Zhongcheng Technology to carry out technical reforms, and the integration effect is beginning to be reflected. As downstream demand recovers, the profitability of hydrogen peroxide will increase significantly. The gradual release of coal mine production capacity is an important growth point for the company in the next 3 years. The company's Guizhou coal mine is undergoing trial production, with a total production capacity of 600,000 tons. Coal mine production capacity is an important growth point for the company's profits in the next few years. In January 2010, the company announced the suspension of major asset restructuring matters, but according to various media reports such as Guangxi Daily and Hunan Daily, Liuhua Group has completed the acquisition of Guangdong Zhongcheng Chemical and Hunan Zhongcheng and Hunan Zhicheng companies it holds. Zhongcheng Chemical is the largest hydrogen peroxide company in China and the largest insurance powder company in the world. In the future, in order to resolve competition in the industry, there is a possibility that Zhongcheng Chemical's assets will be injected into listed companies. The injection of major assets is expected to significantly increase the investment value of Liuhua shares. We predict that the company's EPS for 2010, 2011, and 2012 will be 0.64 yuan, 0.94 yuan, and 1.37 yuan respectively. Currently, the company's dynamic price-earnings ratio is around 23, 15, and 10. The company's current valuation advantage is remarkable, performance has reached an inflection point, and there are strong asset injection expectations. The company's investment value is remarkable. Considering the rapid growth in performance brought about by the company's future construction projects, we maintain the company's buying rating.

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