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【华泰联合证券】柳化股份:区域煤化工龙头,业绩有望大幅增长

華泰聯合證券 ·  Apr 22, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The company is a leading coal chemical enterprise in the Liangguang region. It mainly produces ammonia processing products such as urea, nitric acid, nitrate, soda ash, methanol, etc., and the product chain is flexible and complementary. Through the acquisition of upstream coal resources and Liuzhou Shengjiang Industrial Co., Ltd., the company began to expand upstream and downstream related products, and the coal chemical industry chain improved day by day. The company's products have obvious regional sales advantages. The supply of urea in Guangxi is in short supply. The price is 100 yuan/ton higher than the national average, and the sales radius is only completed in the Liuzhou region. As the only large-scale ammonium nitrate and nitric acid enterprise in the two vast regions, product prices and gross profit have been relatively stable, benefiting from increased demand for explosives for development in the Beibu Gulf and the boom in the downstream nitric acid industry. The increase in domestic natural gas prices will raise the costs of gas head companies, and the company's cost advantage will become more obvious. The cost advantage of Shell devices is evident. As the stable operating time of core equipment was increased to 2 months, the cost advantage gradually became apparent. The coal consumption of a ton of ammonia has dropped from 1.7 tons to 1.5 tons, and the cost of a ton of ammonia is 200 yuan lower than that of the old plant. In 10 years, 200,000 tons of coal were mined at the Xinyi Coal Mine and Aozichong Coal Mine in Guizhou. The cost of a ton of coal was only 550 yuan/ton to the factory price, which was 200 yuan/ton lower than external purchases and increased EPS by 0.11 yuan/share. Upstream and downstream compatibility has been improved, and production capacity has been fully utilized. After the company expanded production of 300,000 tons of urea and 150,000 tons of dilute nitric acid, the bottleneck of concentrated nitric acid was lifted, and production capacity was more fully utilized. As demand in the downstream market picks up, the market prices of the company's main products have rebounded 10% compared to 2009. The company's 10-year performance is expected to increase significantly. The expansion of the industrial chain is progressing steadily. The company is making frequent moves to expand the coal chemical industry chain. In 2009, it further acquired 39% of Shengjiang Chemical's shares and used synthetic ammonia waste gas to produce hydrogen peroxide with a gross profit of more than 30%. We expect the hydrogen peroxide production capacity to reach 220,000 tons after the completion of the second phase of the project. Guangxi media reported that in January '10, Liuhua Group acquired Zhongcheng Chemical, the largest manufacturer of hydrogen peroxide and insurance powder in China, and has a production capacity of 600,000 tons of hydrogen peroxide and 400,000 tons of insurance powder. As the new equipment gets on the right track, production capacity increases dramatically after production bottlenecks are lifted, production costs are drastically reduced, and the company's performance is expected to increase dramatically. We forecast EPS for 10, 11, and 12 to be 0.65, 0.84, and 1.05 yuan, corresponding to 15.64 stock prices. PE is 24.1 times, 18.5 times, and 14.9 times, respectively, and the valuations are relatively reasonable. There is peer competition between Zhongcheng Chemical and the company's products, and asset injection is still promising. For the first time, a “hyperholdings” rating was given.

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