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【申银万国】柳化股份:盈利能力逐步正常化,产能扩张和资产整合推动公司业绩增长

申萬宏源 ·  Apr 26, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Quarterly results are beginning to return to normal profitability. The first quarter achieved revenue of 432 million yuan and net profit of 27 million yuan, up 46% and 311%%, respectively; EPS of 0.10 yuan, lower than our previous forecast of 0.15 yuan. The estimated reason was that sales of some products in March failed to confirm revenue. It is estimated that the impact on net profit is more than 10 million yuan, and the impact on EPS is about 0.05 yuan. Taking these factors into account, is in line with expectations. The revenue growth was driven by a year-on-year increase in plant operating rates, an increase in product production and sales, and an increase in sales prices; a year-on-year increase in Shengqiang Chemical's hydrogen peroxide business was included in the merger list. Gross margin returned to normal, with a consolidated gross profit margin of 21% in the first quarter (9% gross profit margin in 1Q09, 22% in 4Q09). Company profits were relatively unaffected by the drought. Urea accounted for only 11%, ammonium nitrate 41%, and other products such as nitric acid and hydrogen peroxide accounted for 48% of the company's gross profit in 2009. Urea accounts for a relatively small amount, so it is relatively less affected by droughts. The company's old system ammonia synthesis plant is undergoing technical modifications, and the production capacity will be expanded from 300,000 tons to 400,000 tons, which will be completed within the year. The hydrogen peroxide production capacity of the subsidiary Shengqiang Company used Guangdong Zhongcheng Technology to carry out technological transformation, and the integration effect is beginning to be reflected. It was expanded from 200,000 tons to 300,000 tons during the year. The construction of the 300,000-ton coal mine in Aozichong has been completed, and it has entered the trial production and acceptance stage. It is expected that a production license will be obtained in the middle of the year. The Xinyi Coal Mine is undergoing the final stage of construction, and will later enter the trial production stage. Guangdong Zhongcheng, which was acquired by the group, is still carrying out management and asset integration. As the hydrogen peroxide business competes with Liuhua Co., Ltd., it is expected that it will continue to be integrated in the future. Maintain an increase in holdings. The 2010-2011 EPS is maintained at 0.68 yuan and 1.04 yuan respectively. Currently, the stock price corresponds to 10-11PE 21 times and 14 times. If competition issues in the hydrogen peroxide industry are solved, PE is expected to drop to 11-12 times in 2011. Considering integration expectations, the target price for 2011 PE is 20 times, and the target price for the next 6 months is 21 yuan (if the integration is completed, this price corresponds to 15-17 times 2011 PE), so it is recommended to increase holdings.

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