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【广发证券】安泰集团:寒冬已过,春暖花开

廣發證券 ·  Aug 4, 2009 00:00  · Researches

Coke production capacity has been removed from bad to excellent, and continued to grow. At the end of 2008, the company phased out and dismantled the 4×35 hole AT96 coke oven with an annual output of 520,000 tons. Currently, the coke production capacity is about 1.75 million tons, including the two 550,000 ton coke ovens in the first phase of the Hong'an Coking Plant and the first 650,000 ton coke oven in the second phase. The second 600,000-ton blast furnace in Phase II is expected to be completed by the end of the year. At that time, the company's coke production capacity will reach about 2.4 million tons. In the future, as Jiexiu Coke Industry Integration Company clearly benefits as a leading enterprise, production capacity is expected to continue to grow. Demand for coke warmed up, and profits continued to improve. From January to May, the company's capacity utilization rate was about 50-60%, and about 80% for the whole year. Currently, all domestic sales of coke are 1,700 yuan/ton including tax, which is 300 yuan/ton higher than in April. The cost is 1,500 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is about 200 yuan/ton. Looking at the pig iron business, epitaxial development companies currently have a production capacity of about 950,000 tons of pig iron, all of which are sold to Xintai Steel. Currently, the gross profit of tons of iron and water is 100-200 yuan/ton. In the future, Xintai Steel is expected to be injected into listed companies, and the steel business will continue to grow. Participate in resource integration, expand the coal resources company's share in the Sino-Thai coal industry, develop high-quality coking coal resources with recoverable reserves of 600 to 700 million tons in the Luliang region, and also participate in the Fenxi Ruitai Coal Industry Company, participate in the integration of coal resources in Jinzhong City, and plan to build a large-scale coal mine with an annual output of 12 million tons/year. In the future, the company will continue to expand upstream coal resources and become an “coal-coke-steel” upstream and downstream integrated enterprise. Profit forecasts and valuation recommendations estimate that the company's earnings per share from 2009 to 2010 will be 0.05 yuan, 0.21 yuan, and 0.24 yuan, with performance growth rates of 400%, 320%, and 14.29% for the next three years, respectively. We are optimistic about expanding the company's upstream coal resource capacity, and given the company's good growth prospects, we will give it a buying rating.

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