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【长城证券】安泰集团:行业低迷,短期业绩难见改观

長城證券 ·  Mar 11, 2009 00:00  · Researches

Due to the sharp decline in industry prosperity since the second half of 2008, Antai Group's two main businesses, coke and pig iron, have been greatly affected. Although the company currently controls 1.75 million tons of coke, the actual capacity utilization rate in January and February 2009 was only over 60%. Another 550,000 tonne coke oven is under construction. In the second half of 2008, due to pressure on both sides of coke, the gross margin for the whole year fell by nearly 7 percentage points to 19.7% compared to 2007. 25% of coke sales are exported. Against the backdrop of the country's drastic increase in export tariffs, the company paid more than 200 million more tariffs in 2008, resulting in a sharp drop of 96% in net profit from the coke business. Although the company plans to expand the scale of coke and acquire local coking companies, it is difficult to implement in the current period of low industry prosperity. The pig iron business was also greatly affected in 2008. The company currently has a pig iron production capacity of more than 900,000 tons, and the actual output in 2008 was only 630,000 tons. The iron produced is mainly supplied to Xintai Steel, the company's affiliate. In 2008, the gross margin of iron fell to 9% from 11.6% in 2007. Due to insufficient demand for pig iron in the second half of the year, there was a large inventory of iron ore (powder), the company's raw material, which reached 346,000 tons at the end of the year. The reduction in price preparations based on iron ore inventory alone dragged down total profit by nearly 100 million yuan. This is an important reason why the company's 2008 performance fell sharply by 95%. As for future development, the company's integration of the coal, coke, and steel industry chains is most anticipated. The upstream is moving in the direction of coking coal as a raw material. Fenxi Zhongtai, which has a 49% stake, has obtained prospecting rights for a coal mine with reserves of 1 billion tons in the province. It is currently undergoing thorough exploration, and it is expected that mining rights will be obtained around 2010. In 2008, it was planned to raise capital through allotment of shares to acquire the related counterparty, Xintai Steel, but the project was put on hold due to deteriorating conditions in the steel industry in the second half of the year. Xintai Steel is improving the steel processing industry chain, planning to build a 2 million ton special steel project, and is currently constructing the first phase of the 800,000 ton high line project. The listed company may take the opportunity to buy the steel company again. In addition, the company is also preparing to issue no more than 983 million convertible bonds to build two new circular economy projects: 800,000 tons of fine slag powder, 200,000 tons of methanol from coke oven gas, and 100,000 tons of dimethyl ether. However, it is difficult to see any benefits from these projects in the next year or two. It is expected that until the first half of 2009, the recession in the coke and steel industry will continue, and there may be an improvement in the second half of the year. The company's 2009 performance is unlikely to improve, and it is expected to be the same as in 2008. There is likely to be some improvement in 2010. The company is currently highly valued and given a “neutral” rating for the short term.

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