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【国泰君安】安泰集团:最坏时期虽已过去,但仍处于经营困境

國泰君安 ·  Mar 9, 2009 00:00  · Researches

The company released its 2008 report, achieving full-year operating income of 6.378 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.80%; net profit of 012 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 94.67%; and EPS of 0.0143 yuan. Annual production of 1,466,300 tons of coke and 631,300 tons of pig iron was produced; among them, the coke and pig iron business was under large-scale production restrictions in the fourth quarter. The reason for the sharp decline in the company's performance was that the coke and pig iron business suffered serious losses in the fourth quarter of 2008. Affected by the financial crisis, the prices of coke and pig iron fell rapidly by more than 50% in the fourth quarter, and stocks of coke and iron ore were large. Among them, a total of 142 million yuan was prepared for asset impairment in the fourth quarter, which affected earnings per share by about 0.15 yuan. In the first three quarters, the company's net profit was 189.7 million yuan, while the fourth quarter lost 174 million yuan. The company's worst period is over, but it is expected that the first quarter results will still be at a loss. The pig iron business is basically in a state of loss. Since the company has been digesting high-priced iron ore stocks throughout the first quarter, pig iron prices are low. Currently, the coke business has not started enough, and the capacity utilization rate is around 60%-70%. The current coke price has basically balanced the profit and loss of the coke business. In addition, the company's expenses increased significantly, with the “three fees” increasing by 52.81% year on year. Among them, financial expenses were 150 million yuan, an increase of 79.97% over the previous year. As a typical manufacturing enterprise, the company's current financial management pressure is high. The company's operating performance in the second half of the year may be better than the first half of the year. It is expected that investment in 2009 will drive gradual macroeconomic recovery, and the company will turn a loss into a profit in the second half of the year. However, as typical processing enterprises, the coke and pig iron businesses all face overcapacity in the industry, making it difficult for business performance to improve significantly in the short term. The EPS for 2009 and 10 is expected to be 0.078 yuan and 0.163 yuan. Currently, the company's net assets per share are 2.90 yuan, corresponding to the PB value of the current stock price 1.86 times, which is at the center of the company's historical valuation, giving it a “neutral” rating.

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