Company dilemma: affected by industry factors, the company's gross profit margin has declined gradually since 2005, especially in 2009 and 10 years, and the profit level, especially that of the coke business, has fallen to rock bottom. Before 2004, the company was an export-oriented coke production enterprise, but with the continuous increase of coke export tariffs, the proportion of the company's export business income continued to decline. In 2009 and 10 years, the export business income fell to 0.
One of the recommended reasons: the company's positive extension of the upstream coking coal industry is expected to be the key for the company to get out of the trap in the future. By extending to coking coal resources, on the one hand, it will help to ensure the company's coking coal supply, on the other hand, it will bring considerable investment income to the company. We believe that Fenxi Zhongtai will be the top priority of the company in the future in terms of coking coal resources protection and investment income acquisition.
The second reason for recommendation: the key reason for our recommendation of Antai Group is based on the judgment of the trend of the coke industry, that is, it is expected that the coke industry will reverse; we believe that the coke industry will gradually come out of the trough, and the turning point of the industry is approaching. Opportunities for strategic positions in the coke industry have emerged, and the core reason is that we expect Shanxi Province to significantly increase the integration of the coke industry this year.
The third reason for recommendation: Coke futures will be launched soon, which is not only a short-term catalyst, but also a long-term positive.
The fourth reason for recommendation: the company's valuation has fully reflected the negative factors. Although the company's PE is very high, the PB of company 10A, 11e and 12e is only 2.80,2.62,2.53 times respectively. The PB is the lowest in the same industry, far lower than other coke listed companies. The PB of the company is much lower than that of other coke listed companies, mainly because the company is an unpopular stock, has no theme, the degree of attention is very low, and the negative factors of the industry and the company are fully reflected. Therefore, we think that this variety is the safest.
Target price: estimated according to the industry PB (MRQ) average 5.41 times (10 years belong to the listed company shareholder bps is 2.76), the corresponding stock price is about 15 yuan / share, considering the possible uncertainty of the reversal of the predicament of the company and industry, as well as containing some pig iron business, we give the target price 9-10 yuan per share, corresponding to pb 3.26-3.62 times.
