The core logic of our recommendation for Chengfa Technology is: we believe that the three major factors (the country's special policy, large investment at the level of 100 billion dollars, the localization replacement of military aero engines, and the potential trillion-dollar market space for civil aero engines) will drive China's aero engine industry to usher in the best time for development; during this decade of golden development, with the improvement of technical standards, Chengfa Technology, which is backed by the Chinese aviation industry and is an important component of domestic aero engines, will not only fully enjoy the increase in revenue scale brought about by the growing “cake” of the industry, but will also reap a higher level of profit. The country attaches great importance to the aero engine industry, and it is expected that the scale of investment will increase dramatically: the aero engine project, known as the “heart of China,” was first included in the government work report in 2015, and we expect to receive support policies for major projects in the future. We estimate that major projects will reach a scale of 100 billion, and that the investment cycle will be within ten years, which will drive the aero engine industry into a ten-year period of golden development. There is strong demand for localized replacement of military aero engines: China's national defense budget has shown steady growth in recent years, with an increase of 10.1% in 2015. We expect to maintain double-digit growth in the next few years. Among them, the share of equipment investment will also rise to 40% from around 30% at present. At the same time, the localization rate of military aero engines is low, and there is plenty of room for localization and replacement in the future. We roughly estimate that the scale of additional market demand added by localization alone will reach 3 billion US dollars a year. The rapid development of civil aviation has brought about a large market for aero engines: According to a forecast released by Boeing in 2013, the size of the global civil aircraft market will double in the next 20 years. It is estimated that by 2032, China will become the world's largest aviation market, adding about 647 billion US dollars (equivalent to nearly 4 trillion yuan) in value. The sharp increase in demand for complete aircraft will surely drive up engine demand. We expect that the demand for civil aviation engines driven by the growth of passenger aircraft in the next 20 years will reach a trillion yuan scale, reaching an average of 50 billion yuan per year.
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【齐鲁证券】成发科技:不应忽视的航空发动机制造者
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