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【安信证券】金山股份半年度业绩点评:业绩小幅下降

安信證券 ·  Aug 31, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Performance declined slightly: the company achieved operating income of 1,635 billion yuan in the first half of the year, up 7.6% year on year; realized operating profit of 48.97 million yuan, down 53.1% year on year; realized total profit of 58.42 million yuan, down 44.8% year on year; realized net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 51.3 million yuan, down 16.7% year on year; achieved basic earnings per share of 0.1506 yuan, which was lower than market expectations. Reasons for changes in performance: (1) Baiyinhua Power Generation: In the first half of the year, electricity sales volume decreased by 290 million kilowatt-hours due to unit repairs, etc., reducing the company's operating income by 56.66 million yuan, down 9.33% year on year. At the same time, rising coal prices reduced its gross margin by 9.95 percentage points year on year, net profit decreased by about 87 million yuan year on year, and contributed more than 50 million yuan to the reduction in net profit. This was the main reason for the decline in the company's performance in the first half of the year; (2) Benefiting from the rise in coal prices and electricity sales volume., The company's electricity revenue increased 6.4% year on year, but the rise in coal prices reduced the company's gross margin of electricity business by 3.89 percentage points year on year and 34 million yuan year on year in the first half of the year; the increase in heat supply reduced the gross profit of the thermal power business by 10.39 million yuan year on year; (3) Financial expenses: Due to the increase in interest rates, financial expenses increased by 56.29 million yuan year on year, up 26%, further weakening the company's profitability; (4) Investment income: The company's investment income increased by 32.86 million yuan in the first half of the year, up 129.6%. The increase in coal sales revenue from the Haizhou Open Pit Coal Mine increased by 24.95 million yuan; future performance growth can be expected: the second phase of the company's Baiyinhua Project 2 x 660,000 kilowatt installed capacity project is expected to be completed from 2013 to 2014, and Dandong Thermal Power High Voltage is expected to be put into operation before the end of this year. At the same time, the company plans to participate in the first phase of the Haizhou Open Pit Coal Mine plan with a scale of 5 million tons/year, and the second phase will eventually reach the overall plan of 24 million tons/year; in addition, the company plans to issue no less than 6.36 yuan/year of shares at the end of the year. Is the price not publicly available More than 150 million shares have been successfully added, and financial pressure will also be relieved to a certain extent, and the company's future performance growth can be expected. Maintaining the “Increased Holding-A” investment rating: As coal prices in the market gradually decline, the pressure on the company's coal price in the second half of the year will be relieved to a certain extent. In addition, Baiyinhua Power Generation's outstanding electricity generation in the first half of the year will be repaid in the second half of the year. Assuming that Baiyinhua Phase II will be put into operation from 2013 to 2014, the EPS is expected to be 0.37 yuan, 0.42 yuan, and 0.60 yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE is 16.9 times, 15.0 times, and 10.4 times, maintaining the “holding-A” investment rating. Risk warning: the decline in coal prices is lower than expected; utilization hours have declined; projects under construction have been delayed; undisclosed increases have been delayed, etc.;

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