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【山西证券】金山股份:热电季节到来,四季度业绩值得期待

山西證券 ·  Oct 29, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Third-quarter results fell short of expectations. The company achieved operating income of 2.45 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2012, up 11.8% year on year, realized operating profit of 110 million yuan, up 12.2% year on year, realized total profit of 130 million yuan, up 5.4% year on year, and realized net profit attributable to owners of the parent company of 86.4 million yuan, up 16.4% year on year. The company is an inland power plant, and coal prices fell late. Furthermore, heavy industry in the Northeast region is intensive, and electricity consumption is greatly affected by macroeconomics. The company's power generation hours in the second and third quarters were lower than expected. The above factors caused the company's performance growth rate in the first three quarters to be low. The thermal power joint venture guarantees generation hours, and the fourth quarter results are promising. Affected by the two increases in feed-in electricity prices and the fall in coal prices in 2011, profits in the thermal power industry have improved markedly this year. However, due to the decline in economic growth and the decline in electricity demand growth, the decline in power generation hours is a common problem faced by the industry, and it is also an important factor affecting industry profits. The company's power generation hours in the third quarter were greatly affected, which is one of the reasons why the company's performance in the second and third quarters fell short of expectations. However, entering the fourth quarter is the peak period of operation of thermal power companies. Most of the company's units are thermal power units, and the company's power generation hours will increase significantly from month to month. However, considering the current macroeconomic situation, the probability that coal prices will rise sharply in the next six months is low, and the company's performance over the next six months is worth looking forward to. Dandong Thermal Power was put into operation in the fourth quarter, just in time. Unit 1 of the 2×300MW construction project of Dandong Jinshan Thermal Power Co., Ltd. passed 168-hour full load test operation on September 21, 2012. Currently, coal prices have been lowered a lot, and thermoelectric power generation hours are more guaranteed. It is expected that the fourth quarter will contribute considerable profits to the company. There are plenty of reserve projects. The company is currently carrying out preliminary work on three power plants, with a total holding installed capacity of 2.4 million kilowatts and an equity installed capacity of 1.932 million kilowatts. Basically, it is comparable to the current size of the company, and there is great potential for future growth. Two of the three power plants stored by the company are thermoelectric. The approval period for thermoelectric projects mainly depends on the local heat load level. Once the local heat load level is full, approval is imminent. Currently, after the first phase of Sujiatun has been put into operation, the local heat load is quite full, and the speed of approval for the second phase of Sujiatun should be faster. Furthermore, Baiyinhua Phase II is part of the Kengkou Power Plant, supporting Phase III of the Baiyinhua Haizhou Open Pit Coal Mine. Currently, the company is seeking UHV supply lines to Shanghai (Ximeng-Nanjing, Huainan to Shanghai). UHV delivery makes power generation hours more guaranteed, and profitability is better than Phase 1. Profit forecasting and investment ratings. We expect the company's earnings per share in 2012-2013 to be 0.47 and 0.71 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-earnings ratios of 13 and 9 times, respectively. Currently entering the heating season in the north, the company's power generation hours are relatively guaranteed. Furthermore, coal prices are low and there is no sign of a sharp rebound, so the company's fourth quarter results are worth looking forward to. However, considering that there has been no significant improvement in the macroeconomic situation in the Northeast region, the company downgraded its investment rating to “increase wealth” except that it is difficult to guarantee power generation hours during the heating season. Risk warning. Higher than anticipated increases in coal prices erode company profits; risk of approval of new projects;

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