High-speed rail key equipment to promote the company's performance, 2011 EPS of 1.20 yuan, buy: the company's exclusive production in domestic manufacturers of high-speed rail construction key equipment: intelligent phase selection vacuum circuit breaker. The equipment benefits from the peak of domestic high-speed rail construction, with a demand of more than 10,000 units by 12 years ago, which can contribute nearly 3 yuan of EPS to the company. And its service life is 3 years, the company will enjoy the stock market renewal demand for a long time. The company's demand for similar products in the smart grid is estimated to reach 150000 units in 2015, and the company is expected to occupy 30 per cent of the market. The product is expected to start selling in volume in the fourth quarter of 2010, contributing 1.1RMB EPS in 2011. The company's performance is about to grow explosively, with a valuation of 25 times in 2011, with a target price of 30 yuan.
With the upgrading of high-speed railway construction technology, the demand for intelligent phase-selecting vacuum circuit breaker broke out: intelligent phase-selecting vacuum circuit breaker is the key core equipment of high-speed railway construction, and Baoguang is the only domestic supplier of this equipment. Its products have been safely operated for 140,000 times in international tests, while the average operating life of domestic and imported similar products is only 10,000 and 60,000 times. Baoguang products have been in trial operation of ground phase passing device on electrified railway for 6 years and zero fault record has been obtained.
It is expected that starting from 2010, the Ministry of Railways will comprehensively promote the ground phase passing device to replace the currently used vehicle phase passing system, and the intelligent phase selection vacuum circuit breaker is a key component of the ground phase passing device, and its installation capacity is 1 / km railway; due to frequent operation, the average replacement life of the above intelligent switch is 3 years. According to this calculation, the peak of high-speed rail construction will bring a total demand of 12000 smart switches in 10-12 years, with an average annual demand of about 5000 units thereafter.
Smart grid demand opens room for long-term growth: it is estimated that by 2015, smart substations will account for 30% of the total number of substations, and intelligent phase-selective circuit breakers are essential components of smart substations. It is estimated that it will account for 50% of the vacuum circuit breaker market, and the annual demand will exceed 150000 units. Baoguang's traditional circuit breaker core components have a 25% market share and have a significant first-mover advantage in the research and development and promotion of intelligent products, and are expected to account for more than 30% at that time. The introduction of the technical specification for intelligent substations in 2010 will urge Baoguang to benefit greatly from the rapid growth of the market for a long time.
Xidian joined the owner to support the company to become bigger and stronger: the purpose of the merger and acquisition of Baoguang shares by Xidian Group is to build a manufacturing base of low voltage and railway equipment on the basis of Baoguang. The integration is expected to be completed this year and next year, Baoguang will support Baoguang shares to become bigger and stronger: 1) Baoguang will be able to make use of Xidan's brand and channel resources; 2) Xidan Power Group may integrate medium and low voltage power distribution and railway switch assets outside listed companies into Baoguang shares to enrich the company's product line; 3) the group's capital, technology and human resources will provide a solid foundation for the development of Baoguang shares.
