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【中金公司】五洲交通公司动态:转型之路,风险和机遇并存

中金股份 ·  Mar 12, 2013 00:00  · Researches

The 2012 performance was slightly lower than expected. The company achieved net profit of RMB 320 million in 2012, an increase of 15% over the previous year, corresponding to earnings of 0.38 yuan per share, which was slightly lower than the market and our expectations. Higher financial expenses are eating up profits and slowing real estate settlement progress are the main reasons why profits are lower than expected. The development trend “being able to make good use of stable cash flow from road assets to achieve transformation” is our stock selection logic in the highway sector. Wuzhou Transportation is a typical example: “Highways bring stable cash, real estate control performance release, and minerals open up growth expectations”; the company's past success in real estate, logistics, etc., also continues to prove the pioneering strength of management. There are concerns about the road production business: 1) Increased depreciation costs: After adjusting the depreciation coefficients for Pingwang Road and Jinyi Road in 2012, the company once again raised the bicycle depreciation coefficient for Tanbai Expressway in early 2013, directly affecting net profit of 28 million yuan, accounting for 8% of the annual profit forecast. 2) Cen Luo Expressway is difficult to reverse losses this year: The Cen Luo Expressway is still a guillotine road. It is expected that links within Guangdong will be completed by the end of 2013. In 2012, this section of the road contributed 58 million dollars in losses, and there is hope that the loss will be reversed in 2014. 3) Policy risks remain: Of the 415 kilometers of road properties operated by the company, the mileage of non-motorways is 158 kilometers. In the future, the government will gradually abolish low-grade road tolls, and there is uncertainty about the impact of compensation on the company at that time. Real estate settlement profits are expected to improve this year: at present, the Wuzhou International Real Estate Project is still in its final stages, and some stores have not yet been settled, and the second phase of the Jinqiao Project will also be completed in May of this year. The company's marketing progress slowed down in 2012, mainly because the real estate market was generally sluggish, and the company was unwilling to sell at a low level. We expect that after the real estate market has improved slightly in '13, the profit settlement of the real estate business will improve somewhat. Entering the mining industry, risk and opportunity coexist: The company announced today that it intends to restructure Guangxi Han Zinc Indium Co., Ltd. and involve the acquisition of mining rights. At present, the price of tin ore has dropped nearly 50% from the previous high. Coupled with the operating difficulties of the underlying asset, it is indeed a wise move for the company to expand at the bottom of the cycle. However, there is still no clue about many issues such as acquisition consideration, quality of underlying assets, and management and operation after the acquisition, so there may be short-term valuation expansion, but there is great uncertainty about the implementation of profits. Risk and opportunity coexist. The valuation and recommendations estimate that the company's earnings per share for 2013/2014 are 0.41 and 0.48 yuan, corresponding to price-earnings ratio valuations of 10.3x and 8.9x. The current valuation level does not fully reflect the growth potential brought about by the company's diversified development and maintain a long-term recommendation rating. However, investors are also reminded to prevent the risk of stock price fluctuations caused by short-term mining speculation, and it is not recommended to go higher. Risk Macroeconomic downturn risk; mining industry progress falls short of expectations; highway industry policy risk.

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