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【上海证券】通葡股份:红酒产销形势喜人 主业前景渐趋明朗

上海證券 ·  Oct 9, 2007 00:00  · Researches

  The recent wine sales situation is encouraging, and high-end products have become a growth point. In particular, in the second half of the year, the company vigorously switched to high-end products on channels, leading to a significant increase in sales. It is estimated that it will achieve annual sales of more than 120 million yuan, but its sales channels are still focused on the Northeast China market and North China market, and there is huge potential in the East China and South China markets. Ice Portuguese wine may only be a “promotional selling point”; the long-term prospects are yet to be seen. Whether ice wine can continue to be the primary growth point for the company's performance based on its characteristics and quality requires careful observation for the time being. However, the company's vigorous promotion of high-end red wines, such as the “State Banquet 1959,” did have remarkable results. Icewine sales still account for less than 10% of the total sales volume of its products, so reaching 30% in the next three years can be viewed as optimistic. The domestic market is booming, and the company's business is receiving strong support. The positive sales trend, in addition to being directly related to its marketing efforts, is also strongly supported by the high level of prosperity in the domestic wine market. In the first eight months of this year, the country's wine production increased by 27.4% year on year, far ahead of other wine categories. There is still a possibility that Canada's Ice Portugal Estate will be re-acquired, but the wine production capacity is sufficient. The company recently purchased 2,000 acres of winery, which only accounts for one-third of the growing area where it is located. Further acquisitions can guarantee the future supply of raw materials for ice and Portuguese. This year's performance was heavily affected by the receivables bad debt preparation calculation, and it is expected that there will be a strong rebound in the coming years. It is expected that there will be huge losses throughout this year due to the calculation of bad debt preparations for accounts receivable. Earnings per share are expected to be -1.19 yuan; the 2008 performance is expected to completely reverse and achieve earnings of 0.11 yuan per share, while in 2009 it may approach or exceed 0.20 yuan. If there is a recovery of bad debts at that time, the performance will be even more optimistic. Be careful to give a “market-synchronized” rating. Based on the optimistic trend in fundamentals and current stock prices, the long-term stock market is still expected to outperform the market, but the short to medium term may lag behind the market due to poor performance reports. Investors should be cautious at their discretion, or hold coins and wait and see with an eye on systemic risk avoidance in the market. Within the next six months, the market will synchronize; the target price is set at 14 yuan/share.

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