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【东北证券】通葡股份(600365):调研简报

東北證券 ·  Jul 26, 2008 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: Tonghua Wines was founded in 1938 and has a strong influence among consumers, especially middle-aged and elderly people, and the Northeast region. This provides the foundation for the company to build a high-end brand. However, its sweet wine is a low to medium range wine. Coupled with the proliferation of local small wineries in Tonghua, it has damaged the brand's influence. The company's operating conditions have improved, huge bad debts have been written off, cash sales have been achieved, and a certain level of growth has been maintained. However, the majority shareholder, Xinhualian Group took over in 2004 and did not make any fundamental changes to the company. The current income level of Tonglou Co., Ltd. is far from sufficient to establish a nationwide sales network. According to the current gross margin level of Tonglou Co., Ltd., only when sales revenue reaches at least 200 million yuan can it achieve an operating profit of 70 million yuan to cover these expenses. Sales revenue is between 200 million and 300 million dollars. It is still a high investment period, and there is only a small amount of profit. The company's expected sales revenue for 2008 is 100 million yuan. According to the revenue growth rate of less than 20% in the last three years, it will take about 5 years to reach the target of 200 million yuan. Until then, the company's profit situation was highly uncertain. We believe that the stock price of Tonglou Co., Ltd. is relatively safe based on revaluation, that is, the reasonable price is around 3.79 yuan. The current price in the secondary market is quite risky.

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