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【东方证券】红星发展:退税率下调对无机盐产品出口负面影响大

東方證券 ·  Jul 9, 2007 00:00  · Researches

  In 2006, Red Star Development's export sales revenue was 388.86 million yuan, an increase of 18% over the previous year; while domestic sales revenue was 67.8.56 million yuan, a decrease of 5% from the previous year, the company's growth is highly dependent on export business. Red Star Development's main export products, barium carbonate, strontium nitrate, and electrolytic manganese dioxide products, are all inorganic salt products with relatively low added value and relatively high energy consumption. The consumption of materials such as inorganic minerals and fuels accounts for a large share of the total cost, and the reduction in the export tax rebate rate has had a relatively serious negative impact on the company's such products. When the barium carbonate and strontium carbonate business declined in the previous two years, the rise of electrolytic manganese dioxide products once became an important pillar of the company's profit growth. However, as competition in the domestic electrolytic manganese dioxide market becomes more intense and the price of manganese dioxide raw ore rises sharply, it is difficult for the company's electrolytic manganese dioxide gross margin to continue to increase. Other new products developed by Red Star Development in recent years, such as insoluble sulfur, thiourea, and small varieties of barium and strontium, have not yet reached scale, and the coal mining business of Guizhou Rongguang Mining Co., Ltd. has not yet produced benefits; under the influence of various adverse factors, it is expected that Red Star Development's profit will continue to decline by a certain margin in 2007. The forecast is that Red Star Development's earnings per share for 2007 will be 0.18 yuan. Based on the latest closing price of 8.64 yuan, the company's dynamic price-earnings ratio reached 47 times in 2007, maintaining a “neutral” rating.

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