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【华泰联合证券】宏达股份:洗耳恭迎亮丽的华彩

華泰聯合證券 ·  Sep 13, 2007 00:00  · Researches

  It is expected that zinc supply and demand will be basically balanced or slightly surplus in 07-08, and will become strained again in '09. The restart of mines closed in the West and the expansion of smelting production capacity in China constitute the main supply increase in the short to medium term. In the absence of additional mines and the elimination of 30% of domestic smelting capacity, this kind of supply growth will not be sustainable; on the demand side, we have always remained optimistic. Our basic judgment on zinc price performance is that it is weak in the short term, stable in the medium term, and optimistic in the long term. It is expected that in 07-08, zinc prices will follow the trend of other basic metals. Apart from the relationship between supply and demand, the weak US dollar will always be a good supporting factor for basic metal prices. The strong fundamentals of lead metals in the short to medium term have become a beneficial profit supplement for lead-zinc companies. Zinc fundamentals are expected to return to strength after '09. The success of the Lanping lead-zinc mine shows the company's strong ability to acquire resources and foresight into resource value. We have reason to be optimistic about the company's resource expansion prospects. After the “additional issuance” is implemented, the controlling interest threat is lifted, shareholders' interests are converging, and the majority shareholders will show greater enthusiasm in this regard. The progress of the second phase of Lanping Zinc Smelting is uncertain, or is slower than our previous estimates. Be careful, we will postpone the start of production until the end of 2008. If production starts early, it will be a surprise created by the company. The sharp rise in lead prices and the marked increase in the P/B level of comparable companies in the market have led to an increase in the reasonable value within the company. After the update, the company's internal reasonable value should be 92.88 yuan/share, maintaining the “increased holdings” rating.

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