Successful business transformation, is about to become a leading enterprise of MDF in southwest China. At the beginning of the listing, the company's main business is glass deep processing and construction, and gradually transformed into wood-based panel manufacturing after listing. In 2005, the company's first 220000 cubic meter MDF production line was put into production, and three 220000 cubic meter MDF production lines are expected to be put into production in the third quarter of this year. The design capacity of MDF will reach 870,000 cubic meters, and the actual production capacity can be exceeded to 1.2 million cubic meters. Become the largest MDF manufacturer in southwest China.
The MDF industry is encouraged by the policy, and the demand prospect is promising. As the raw materials of MDF are mainly sub-small fuelwood, three leftovers, etc., the comprehensive utilization efficiency of wood is high, encouraged by the preferential tax of the state, and the development speed is the fastest among the three boards (plywood, MDF and particleboard). The lower reaches of the MDF industry is mainly the panel furniture industry, due to the protection of forest resources, solid wood furniture is limited, and recently the state has proposed to speed up small and medium-sized urbanization and indemnificatory housing construction, the demand prospect of panel furniture is good. In addition, construction decoration, flooring, packaging and other downstream industries continue to increase demand for MDF, but also promote the demand for MDF in the medium and long term.
The recovery of furniture industry will lead to the recovery of MDF industry. The export of China's furniture industry was greatly affected by the financial crisis in 2008, and the demand of MDF industry was greatly affected, especially the coastal MDF enterprises. On the other hand, before 2009, due to the high profit margin, the investment in MDF production capacity increased rapidly. 2008 was a year of concentrated production capacity, and the pressure on production capacity was reduced in 2008 and 2010. Under the trend of improving the relationship between supply and demand, the profitability of MDF industry is expected to recover.
The new investment production line focuses on the sheet with high profit margin, and the company's profitability is expected to be improved. At present, the company's production line can only produce a small number of thin plates, most of which are medium and thick plates, with a gross profit margin of 14% Mel 18%, while the gross profit margin of thin plates is more than 20%. The company's new investment of 3 lines due to advanced equipment, can mainly produce sheet, the company's profitability is expected to be significantly improved.
Profit forecasts and investment advice. It is predicted that the EPS of the company from 2009 to 2011 is 0.21,0.45,0.84 yuan respectively. According to the current valuation of wood-based panel listed companies, considering that our profit forecast has not taken into account the value of the company's real estate project, we give the company 18-20 times PE in 2011, corresponding to a value range of 15.12-16.80 yuan. It is recommended to buy at a low price.
The main risk. 1) the uncertainty of furniture export recovery; 2) the risk of market development; 3) the risk of raw material supply restrictions and price fluctuations.