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【海通证券】天房发展:销售回升有望扭转上年业绩下滑

海通證券 ·  Apr 30, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Event: The company published its 2013 annual report. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 1,749 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 45.55%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 144 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.78%; and basic earnings per share of 0.13 yuan. The company's dividend plan distributes a cash dividend of 0.40 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares. The company published its 2014 quarterly report. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 466 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.13%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 64.49 million yuan, a slight decrease of 2.75% over the previous year; and basic earnings per share of 0.06 yuan. Investment advice: The company's real estate business is entirely concentrated in Tianjin, covering commercial housing, guaranteed housing and first-class land development business. Since last year, the company has increased its reserves for guaranteed housing projects (involving 1.2 million square meters of guaranteed housing built on behalf of agents). Currently, the company's equity construction area totals 4.37 million square meters (not considering the 1,700-acre Hangu Hexi land reclamation project), which can meet the company's development over the next three years. In the context of real estate regulation, the company maintained a cautious mindset, so its debt and cash flow were good, and the advance income per share was high. We expect the company's 2014 and 2015 EPS to be 0.25 yuan and 0.31 yuan respectively, and the corresponding RNAV is 6.69 yuan. As of April 29, the company closed at 3.27 yuan, corresponding to PE 13.26 times in 2014 and 10.49 times PE in 2015. 65% of the company's RNAV was given as its target price, corresponding to the target price of 4.35 yuan, maintaining the company's “increased holdings” rating.

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