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【第一创业证券】宏达股份:业绩增长只能靠金属价格上涨

[first Venture Securities] HTC shares: performance growth can only rely on rising metal prices.

第一創業 ·  Apr 30, 2010 00:00  · Researches

In 2009, the company achieved operating income of 3.987 billion yuan, an increase of 0.18% over the same period last year.

Achieve a total profit of 311 million yuan and turn losses into profits. The net profit belonging to the shareholders of the listed company was 175 million yuan, and the earnings per share was 0.17 yuan.

The company's performance fell short of expectations. The company produced 637000 tons of zinc oxide ore for the whole year, up 2.04 percent from the same period last year; 44800 tons of zinc sulphide concentrate, down 4.74 percent from the same period last year; and 13300 tons of lead sulphide concentrate, down 2.1 percent from the same period last year. Due to the company's only small increase in production is the high-cost zinc oxide ore, while the low-cost zinc sulphide ore production shows a downward trend, so the performance is lower than expected. In other products, 194800 tons of zinc ingots, 303200 tons of monoammonium sulfate, 90,000 tons of calcium hydrogen phosphate and 200000 tons of ammonium bicarbonate have little impact on profits.

Output remained stable in 2010, and the increase in profits was mainly due to metal prices. The company plans to produce 200000 tons of zinc ingots and 600000 tons of zinc oxide ore in 2010, slightly lower than in 2009, although the production plan for products such as 315000 tons of monoammonium phosphate is slightly higher than in 2009, the profit contribution of these product teams is small.

Lead and zinc prices are long-term bullish and short-term subject to the euro zone debt crisis and China's real estate regulation and control policies.

Metal price is a quantitative expression of metal supply and demand relative to US dollar supply and demand. in the long run, the main logic of polymetal price is that the massive increase in US dollar supply makes metal supply and demand stronger than US dollar supply and demand. However, in the short term, the euro zone debt crisis will cause short-term safe-haven funds to chase US dollar assets, resulting in strong demand for the US dollar and depressing metal prices. China's real estate regulation and control policies will have a certain impact on the demand of the world's largest metal demand country.

The company is given a "neutral" investment rating, although the company's valuation is lower than that of other lead and zinc companies, but its chemical assets are a drag on the company's performance. Combined with our estimate that the company's EPS will reach 0.45,0.71,0.80 yuan in 2010-2012, giving the company a "neutral" investment rating.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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