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【中银国际证券】商业城:14年扭亏为盈将迎摘帽行情

中銀國際證券 ·  Mar 4, 2015 00:00  · Researches

In 2014, the company achieved operating income of 1,494 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.71%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 32.2597 million yuan, equivalent to earnings per share of 0.18 yuan, turning a loss into a profit. Net profit after deducting non-return was -269 million yuan, or equivalent earnings per share was -1.51 yuan. The performance slightly exceeded our previous forecast of earnings of 0.01 yuan per share in 2014, mainly because the return on the sale of assets was higher than our expectations. We maintain the company's 2015-16 earnings per share forecast of -1.22 and -1.15 yuan respectively, give the 2017 earnings forecast of -0.9 yuan per share, and raise the target price to 14.50 yuan. Although the company sells assets to resolve the risk of the company's short-term delisting, it is impossible to resolve the business difficulties the company will face in the long term, so we believe that the company's long-term focus is still on revitalizing assets and asset injection expectations after Huang Maoru's stock market. Maintain the buy rating. Key points supporting ratings n The divestment of two non-core assets during the reporting period turned a loss into a profit. During the reporting period, the company divested two non-core assets of Liaoning Logistics and Anli Real Estate, and obtained revenue of 306 million yuan from disposal of assets, enabling the company to achieve net profit of 32.26 million yuan during the reporting period, an increase of 309.59 million yuan over the previous year, turning losses into profits and selling non-core assets, which helped the company focus more on the operation of its main business. The actual controller of the company changed during the reporting period. During the reporting period, Huang Maoru acquired 209.07.94 million shares of the Commercial City Group at 9.9 yuan/share and became the actual controller of the commercial city. The company's stock price before the suspension of trading was 7.74 yuan/share, with a premium of 27.9%, demonstrating Huang's confidence in the company's future development and affirmation of the company's value. The company's long-term focus is on revitalizing assets and asset injection expectations after Huang Maoru takes control. The main business revenue and net profit continued to decline in the fourth quarter in a single quarter. In the fourth quarter, the company achieved revenue of 360 million yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%. Net profit after deducting non-profits lost 105 million yuan, and the main business continued to lose money. Due to the slowdown in macroeconomic growth, sluggish consumption, and intense competition in the Shenyang consumer market, and due to the company's high level of finance, the company's main business conditions have now improved. The company's gross margin during the reporting period increased by 3.57 percentage points year on year, and the expense ratio for the period increased 9.03 percentage points year on year. In terms of gross margin, the company's consolidated gross margin in 2014 was 16.76%, an increase of 3.57 percentage points over the same period last year. Judging from historical data, the company's gross margin in recent years is far below the industry average. We believe that the company's gross margin level will continue to improve after the Maoye Department enters the company. In terms of the period fee rate, the company's annual fee rate in 2014 increased by 9.03 percentage points year on year to 35.09%. Among them, sales, management, and financial expense rates changed by -0.27, 4.15, and 5.15 percentage points, respectively, to 2.43%, 18.77%, and 13.89% year-on-year. The company's overall cost ratio increased, mainly due to the decline in revenue during the reporting period, while rigid expenses such as labor costs and utility costs did not decrease. At the same time, the company's capital expenses were large and financial expenses were high. The main risk faced by ratings n is a high debt ratio. The company currently has a debt of 3.3 billion dollars, of which short-term debt is 3 billion, the debt ratio is as high as 87%, and the investment income from the sale of the real estate business is 240 million yuan. It can only ease the immediate situation. It is difficult to solve the problem of the company's high long-term debt ratio. n The company has had few exchanges with the capital market in history, and the level of attention is not high, so there may be information asymmetry. Although the valuation of the company sells assets to resolve the risk of the company's short-term delisting, it cannot resolve the business difficulties that the company will face in the long term. Therefore, we believe that the company's long-term focus is still on revitalizing assets and asset injection expectations after Huang Maoru shares. We maintained the company's 2015-16 earnings per share forecast of -1.22 and -1.15 yuan respectively, and gave the 2017 earnings per share forecast of -0.9 yuan. The target price was raised from 14.00 yuan to 14.50 yuan, maintaining the buying rating.

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