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【华泰联合证券】曙光股份:业绩确认稳健奠定继续增长基础

華泰聯合證券 ·  Mar 27, 2012 00:00  · Researches

The company achieved sales revenue of 6.25 billion yuan in 2011, an increase of 2.28% over the previous year, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 178 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.8%, and a total diluted EPS of 0.31 yuan, lower than our expectations. The main reason for falling short of expectations is that the company's main business revenue in the fourth quarter of '11 fell sharply by about 50% compared to the same period last year. Our analysis suggests that it may be mainly due to the pace of revenue recognition, which may lay a solid foundation for revenue growth in 2012. Also, the relatively large increase in financial expenses is one reason why it is lower than expected. The axle business in 2011 was affected by a sharp decline in the boom in downstream light trucks and own-brand passenger cars. Operating income was 1.25 billion, down 11.8% year on year, and gross profit margin was 17.9%, down 3.2 percentage points from 10 years. In 2012, we expect light trucks to grow moderately, and own-brand passenger cars are expected to gradually break away from their weak position compared to joint venture brands due to increasingly obvious policy support tendencies. Vehicle revenue in 2011 was 3.84 billion yuan, up 9.2% year on year, and gross profit margin was 15.1%, down 2.5 percentage points from 10 years. Meanwhile, in January-June, the company's vehicle business revenue increased by 35%, of which passenger car sales increased by 19% (SUV sales increased 20%, pickup truck sales increased 9%), and bus revenue increased 62%. According to data from the China Passenger Network and the China Automobile Association, bus sales in Huanghai remained basically the same throughout the year. We believe that SUVs and pickups are the main source of a slight increase in vehicle revenue throughout the year. In our forecast, we still assume that the Zhuzhou electric vehicle sales company can be merged in 2012, which can contribute 3.13 billion dollars in revenue, and it is predicted that the new energy bus business will contribute 100 million yuan in investment income in 2012. We expect the company's gross margin to rise by about 1 percentage point in 2012. The adjusted company's EPS forecasts for 12 and 13 are 0.44 and 0.64 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 15.9 and 10.9 respectively. As a domestic leader in NEV motors and passenger cars, the valuation is attractive. There is a high probability that the “12th Five-Year Plan” for new energy vehicles will be introduced in 2012. It will become a catalyst for the company's stock price and maintain the “buy” rating. Risk warning: The decline in the prosperity of the automobile industry exceeded expectations; the rise in raw material costs exceeded expectations; and the promotion of new energy vehicles fell short of expectations.

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