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【天相投资】维维股份:主业下滑,投资收益撑起一片天空

天相投資 ·  Aug 9, 2009 00:00  · Researches

From January to June 2009, the company achieved operating income of 1,325 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.91%, operating profit of 142 million yuan, an increase of 70.53% over the previous year, net profit attributable to the parent company of 102 million yuan, an increase of 80.28% over the previous year, and earnings per share of 0.06 yuan. Among them, in the second quarter, the company achieved operating income of 527 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.66%, net profit attributable to the parent company of 29.4733 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.449 billion yuan, and earnings per share of 0.02 yuan. Shuanggou Liquor contributed more than 1/4 of the company's profits. During the reporting period, Jiangsu Shuanggou Liquor Co., Ltd., which holds 40.60% of the company's shares, achieved net profit of 66.93 million yuan, contributing 27.17 million yuan to the company's net profit, accounting for 26.51% of the company's net profit. Jiangsu Shuanggou Group has total assets of 620 million yuan, annual sales revenue of 500 million yuan, and annual profit of 150 million yuan. The annual production and sales volume of Dagu wine is the highest. The company's main product, “Shuanggou Treasure House,” was officially launched on the market in 2006, with sales exceeding 70 million in that year; it reached 150 million in 2007; and over 300 million in 2008. We believe that the development prospects of Haoshuanggou Liquor are relatively optimistic, and that Shuanggou Liquor will continue to be an important profit growth point for the company in the future. Investment income is the biggest driver of a company's profit growth. During the reporting period, due to the impact of the melamine incident in the previous period, the company's product sales have not fully resumed, and operating income has declined to a certain extent (among them, revenue from the soy milk powder business fell 14.26% year on year, and revenue from dairy products fell 10.63% year on year), but net profit attributable to the parent company still increased by 80.28%. The main reasons are: (1) Gross margin increased by 4.92 percentage points. During the reporting period, benefiting from the decline in the prices of raw materials such as soybeans, sugar, and milk powder, the company's gross margin increased year-on-year. Among them, the gross margin of the soy milk powder business increased by 14.84 percentage points to 41.48%, and dairy products increased by 2.02 percentage points to 26.08%; (2) investment income contributed significantly to profit. During the reporting period, the company achieved investment profit of 98.1776 million yuan, a sharp increase of nearly 11 times over the previous year. Among them, in addition to the investment income contributed by the joint venture Shuanggou Liquor, during the reporting period, the company sold securities held, and the transactional financial assets increased income by 73.81 million yuan. This revenue was the biggest booster for the company's profit growth during the reporting period. Earnings forecasts and ratings. Considering that the company's new coal business (acquisition of 51% shares in Wuhai Zhengxing Coal Chemical Co., Ltd.) was just handed over in April, and profitability has not yet been reflected, we have yet to consider its contribution to the company's profit. The company's EPS for 2009-2010 is estimated to be 0.098 yuan and 0.099 yuan respectively. Currently, the company's stock price is 7.53 yuan, and the corresponding dynamic PE is 77X and 76X respectively, maintaining the company's “neutral” investment rating. Risk warning. (1) The impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on liquor consumption (Shuanggou Liquor); (2) The impact of market fluctuations on the company's stock price.

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