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【华安证券】*ST商城:脉络逐步理清,等待业绩改善

華安證券 ·  Jun 27, 2014 00:00  · Researches

The company issued a major asset restructuring announcement today. After more than 4 months of suspension of trading, the company today announced a major asset restructuring plan. The company's major asset restructuring plan is to sell 99.94% of its shares in Liaoning Logistics and 100% of Anli Real Estate's shares to the related party Maoye Commercial Building. The estimated transfer price of Liaoning Logistics shares is 295.3279 million yuan, and Anli Real Estate's estimated transfer price is 41.4 million yuan. The real estate business was divested to focus more on the main business, resolve the delisting crisis, and avoid competition in the industry. In November 2013, the controlling shareholder of the company changed, and Maoye took over the company's shares at a price of 9.9 yuan per share to become the controlling shareholder. However, since Maoye has both retail and real estate businesses in Shenyang, it competes with the company's main business. The company lost 270 million yuan in 2013 and was warned to be delisted by the exchange. We believe that the sale of the company's assets this time has brought many benefits. First, it is possible to obtain investment income from asset sales to avoid delisting; secondly, divesting the real estate business has made the company focus more on retail business; furthermore, it is beneficial to avoid competition in the same industry. This asset sale increased investment income by about 240 million yuan, and the company's net profit is expected to reverse losses slightly this year. The cost of shares held by the company in Liaoning Logistics is about 93.45 million yuan. The current sale is 295 million yuan, which can obtain investment income of 201 million yuan. The company's investment income from selling Anli Real Estate is about 40 million yuan, for a total of about 240 million yuan. We expect the company to reverse losses this year mainly due to cost control and investment income. The company lost 277 million yuan for the full year of 2013, of which the major expenses were management remuneration and financial expenses. In 2013, the company's management remuneration was 99.27 million yuan, and the annual salary per manager was 322,500 yuan. We expect half of this year's managers' remuneration. The company's financial expenses last year were 160 million yuan, mostly interest expenses on loans from real estate holding subsidiaries. We expect that with the divestment of the company's real estate business and the return of loans, there will also be a certain amount of financial expenses this year Space is compressed, but since asset restructuring and asset transfers will take time, there is not much room to reduce financial expenses this year. We believe that the company's net profit slightly reversed the loss. The main business is gradually becoming clear, and there is huge room for improvement. We believe that the current divestment of the company's real estate business and the previous acquisition of shares in a famous product discount company held by Liaoning Logistics shows that the management has a clear strategic idea of relying on the commercial city platform to do a good job in retail. The company's gross profit margin in 2013 was 12.43%, and the management expenses ratio was as high as 14.63%, indicating that the company had serious losses under the management of the state-owned enterprise team in the past. Furthermore, the company's financial expenses ratio was as high as 8.73%. We believe that there is huge room for improvement in the company's profitability in the future, and we believe that Maoye has extensive management experience in the retail industry and has the ability to transform the company. Moreover, the Maoye department has always held shares in the commercial city and has directors on the board of directors of the commercial city, so it is very clear about the problems in the company's business process. The best example is that the company immediately changes its vice president in charge of procurement and finance after gaining a controlling interest. We believe that the reason for the company's poor performance in the past few years is probably due to serious omissions in the procurement process and finance departments. Also, taking into account the increase in profitability of target assets after Maoye acquired Chengshang Group and Bohai Logistics, we have reason to believe that a significant improvement in the company's profitability is a probable event. Profit forecasting and valuation. We expect the company's net profit in 2014 to reverse a slight loss. In 2015, as the company's profitability improved, the company's performance is expected to be 0.02 yuan, 0.43 yuan, and 0.67 yuan respectively. We believe that the company is currently in an upward channel, and the current stock price is 25% lower than the majority shareholders' purchase price. The company's current PS is only 0.72, referring to Chengshang Group's 1.20 PS. According to the company's sales revenue of 1.8 billion yuan in 2013, we expect the company's reasonable market value to be 2.16 billion yuan, corresponding to the current stock price. 66% room for growth, giving a “buy” rating for a long time.

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