The company achieved sales revenue of 1,613 billion yuan in the first quarter, up 31.5% year on year; net profit attributable to the parent company was 47 million yuan, equivalent to EPS of 0.16 yuan, an increase of 32.74% year on year. Although the withdrawal of the rural policy had a negative impact on the company's pickup truck sales in January, strong demand for terminals quickly offset short-term policy disruptions in February and March, and the SUV market still maintained a rapid growth trend, causing the company's total sales of SUVs and pickups to increase 29% in the first quarter, faster than the industry average growth rate. The SUV and pickup truck industry is still in an upward cycle. We expect the company's SUV and pickup truck sales to increase by 30% and 25% respectively throughout the year. As sales of SUVs and pickups increased by 29%, Huanghai bus sales fell by about 20% year on year. The company's axle sales revenue is expected to increase by more than 30%, which is significantly higher than the overall growth rate of the automobile industry, and its market share continues to increase. Axle revenue growth is expected to reach 30% for the whole year. Since axle procurement costs account for a high proportion, and the ability to transfer rising costs is weak, rising raw material costs have a big impact on gross margin. However, it is also difficult for the company's SUV and pickup truck business to cope with rising costs due to the short length of the industrial chain. As a result, gross margin for the first quarter fell 3.2 percentage points from the same period and 2.66 percentage points lower than the full year of last year. With the beginning of the second quarter, the prices of raw materials such as steel fell to a certain extent, and the recovery in bus sales will also drive up the gross margin of its buses, so we expect its gross margin to drop by about 2 percentage points to 14.54% throughout the year. The company's three expense ratios in the first quarter were only 8.16%, down 2.87 and 1.84 percentage points from the same period and the full year of 2010, respectively. As a result, the net interest rate increased by 0.03 percentage points compared to the same period last year. We expect the company's three expenses to be 8.68% for the whole year, but due to the high income tax rate in the first quarter and the same period, the annual net interest rate is still expected to reach 3.7%, down about 0.3 percentage points from 2010. There are still no merge-era electric vehicles in the first quarter, and we are unable to predict when the merger will take into account in our predictions starting in 2012. Electric vehicle companies are expected to contribute 3.13 billion in revenue and 100 million in investment income in 2012. Therefore, the company's EPS is expected to be 0.98 and 1.40 yuan respectively in 2011 and 2012, and the corresponding PE is 22.6 times and 15.7 times, respectively. As a leading domestic NEV motor and bus vehicle fleet, the current valuation is still attractive, maintaining a “buy” rating. Risk warning: The promotion process of new energy vehicles fell short of expectations; the increase in raw material costs exceeded expectations.
【华泰联合证券】曙光股份:原材料成本上涨冲击显著
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