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【天相投资】大恒科技:受宏观经济低迷影响,经营业绩不容乐观

天相投資 ·  Mar 20, 2009 00:00  · Researches

Description of the incident: Recently, we visited Daheng New Era Technology Co., Ltd. to conduct research and communicate with company executives about the company's current business situation and future development strategy. Our analysis of the company's business conditions and future development prospects is as follows: Comments: 1. Information technology and office automation business. The company's information technology and office automation business mainly deals in channel distribution of general IT products and computer network system products, that is, purchasing equipment directly from IT equipment manufacturers and selling the equipment to terminal retailers, and the company earns the difference in price. Since 2008, due to the slowdown in domestic macroeconomic growth, IT demand from domestic enterprises and individuals has declined, and the company's revenue growth rate from this business is expected to decline. 2. TV digital network editing and broadcasting system business. The company's TV digital network editing and broadcasting system business is mainly operated by the holding subsidiary Zhongke Dayang. Its main products include nonlinear editing systems, graphic production and broadcasting systems, media asset management systems, digital media content management platforms, etc. The main customers are television stations all over the country. China Science and Technology Ocean is a leading enterprise in the field of network editing and broadcasting systems for domestic television stations, accounting for more than 50% of the domestic market share. In recent years, while consolidating and developing the TV station market, China Science and Technology Ocean has begun to expand into a huge number of civilian markets, such as cinemas, but the main obstacle to the company's further development is: on the one hand, the procurement of equipment by TV stations is affected by national policies and various other non-economic factors, and there is some uncertainty about their demand; on the other hand, TV station projects are generally large-scale integrated projects that require a large investment of human and material resources. Currently, China Science and Technology Ocean is still too small to undertake such projects in large numbers. Based on comprehensive considerations, we expect COSCO's revenue growth rate to remain around 10% in the next few years. 3. Semiconductor component business. The company's semiconductor component business is mainly operated by the holding subsidiary Ningbo Mingxin. Ningbo Mingxin's original production line was mainly engaged in the packaging business of low-power devices. The 10 power device production lines purchased by Ningbo Mingxin from Singapore Jinpeng Company in 2007 are mainly used in the high-power device packaging business. The infrastructure has now been completed. After the entire project is completed, the production capacity of 100 million high-power devices and 350 million surface-mount power devices will be added. The products are mainly resold overseas (mainly the US) through Jinpeng. Since 2008, due to the financial crisis in Europe and the US, the international component industry has fallen into a slump, and market demand has seriously shrunk. Although Ningbo Mingxin's production capacity has expanded drastically, due to the sharp decline in market demand, it will be difficult to achieve profits in 2008, and it is expected that 2009 will improve somewhat. 4. Vigorously cultivate new businesses. In order to improve profitability, in recent years, the company has also developed intelligent medical equipment and image acquisition and processing equipment with independent intellectual property rights. After years of cultivation and development, these two products already have certain technical reserves and are expected to become key products for the company's future development, but judging from now on, their revenue scale is still small and does not contribute much to the company's net profit. 5. Participating financial companies are expected to bring large investment returns to the company. At the end of 2007, the company signed an agreement with Science City, the second largest shareholder, to transfer 20% of the shares of Nuoan Fund held by Science City. Currently, the transfer has not been approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission. What is worth paying attention to is that despite the sharp decline in China's A-share market, Nuoan Fund's operating performance in 2008 was still relatively good. By the end of 2008, the net value of the managed fund was 33.2 billion yuan, of which 400 million yuan in management fees were obtained in the first half of the year, and it is estimated that it will receive more than 600 million yuan in management fees throughout the year. According to previous company announcements, after receiving approval from the Securities Regulatory Commission to participate in Nuoan Fund, 20% of Nuoan Fund's net profit after October 31, 2007 will be included in Daheng Technology's investment income. Based on this calculation, once the company's participation in Nuoan Fund is approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission, it will bring large investment returns to the company. In addition, China Daheng, a holding subsidiary of the company, recently obtained approval from the Securities Regulatory Commission to increase its 31% stake in Shanghai Mainland Futures. After the share transfer is completed, China Daheng will hold 49% of the shares in Shanghai Mainland Futures. Shanghai Mainland Futures has six sales departments in Beijing, Dalian, Zhengzhou, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Fuzhou. It also has seats in major national exchanges, particularly the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the Dalian Commodity Exchange, and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, which have more than two seats. Shanghai Mainland Futures had operating income of 26 million yuan and net profit of 4.5 million yuan. If calculated based on Daheng Group's current shareholding ratio, Shanghai Mainland Futures could contribute 2.05 million yuan in investment income to Daheng Group in 2007, and ultimately increase the company's earnings per share by 0.005 yuan. 6. Regardless of the impact of participating in Nuoan Fund, it is predicted that the company's earnings per share in 2008-2010 will be 0.19 yuan, 0.21 yuan, and 0.24 yuan respectively. Based on the closing price of 7.11 yuan, the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratios are 37 times, 33 times, and 30 times, respectively. Currently, the company's valuation is basically reasonable, maintaining the company's “neutral” investment rating.

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The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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