From January to June 2011, the company achieved sales revenue of 33.219 billion yuan and net profit attributable to the parent company of 1,098 billion yuan, up 18.68% and 25.67% year-on-year respectively, higher than our previous expectations. Although the company's revenue growth in January-June was significantly higher than the growth rate of the automobile industry, the axle business was affected by a sharp decline in the downstream light truck and own-brand passenger car boom, and revenue decreased by 26.96% compared to the same period. As far as the whole year is concerned, there is little chance that the boom of light trucks and independent brands will pick up rapidly, so it is expected that the axle business will recover to a very limited extent in the second half of the year. Since the second half of 2010 was affected by industry inventory replenishment factors, the base for the same period was high, so the adjusted annual axle revenue is expected to decline by 35%. From January to June, revenue from the vehicle business increased by 35%, with passenger cars increasing 19% and bus revenue by 62%. In the first half of the year, the company's SUV sales increased 20% and pickup truck sales increased 9%. Currently, the growth rate of SUVs has declined significantly, but full sales of the Qisheng V3 in the second half of the year will make up for the growth rate to a certain extent. SUV sales are expected to increase by 18% throughout the year, and pickup trucks are still expected to grow 20% due to the low base in the second half of last year. Since data from China Passenger Network or the Automobile Association shows that there was only a slight increase in bus sales in the first half of the year, it can be determined that the bus business's revenue growth in the first half of the year mainly came from exports of special vehicles and KD spare parts. Therefore, bus sales are expected to increase by 10% throughout the year, but depending on exports of special vehicles and spare parts, the bus business revenue will increase by more than 40%. As raw material costs gradually declined, the company's cost pressure decreased, but gross margin rebounded markedly in the second quarter. The overall gross margin reached 15.47% in the first half of the year. The degree of improvement exceeded our expectations, and adjusted the gross margin forecast to 15.3%. In our forecast, we still assume that the Zhuzhou Electric Vehicle Sales Company can be merged in 2012, contributing 3.13 billion in revenue, and predicting that the NEV business will contribute 100 million in investment income in 2012. The adjusted company's EPS forecasts for 2011 and 2012 were 0.44 and 0.68 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE was 15.9 times and 10.2 times, respectively. Despite strong pressure on the company's performance growth in 2011, as a leading domestic NEV motor and bus vehicle fleet, the current valuation (especially the 2012 valuation) is still fully attractive; however, there is a high probability that the “12th Five-Year Plan” for new energy vehicles will be introduced before the end of 2011, which will act as a catalyst for the company's stock price, so it still maintains a “buy” rating. Risk warning: The boom in the automobile industry has declined more than expected; the cost of raw materials has risen above expectations; the promotion of new energy vehicles has fallen short of expectations.
【华泰联合证券】曙光股份:当前低估值已可消化业绩压力
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