The traditional food business is developing slowly The traditional soy milk powder and dairy business is affected by the rapid development of room temperature milk, market space is being squeezed, and the pace of development is slow. In the absence of major changes in consumer attitudes, we do not expect this trend to change significantly in the short term. Short-term benefits from lower costs. Judging from what the company learned, the company consumed nearly 100,000 tons of soybeans and 50,000 tons of sugar in 2008. The cost of raw materials fell sharply in the first quarter of this year. The price of soybeans in the same period last year was 5,500-6,000 yuan/ton, but now it has dropped to 3,000 yuan/ton. It is expected that this year's decline in soybean prices will save the company hundreds of millions of dollars. However, we believe that this portion of revenue cannot be exclusively shared by companies; dealers and consumers will all get a share of the pie. The Shuanggou Liquor Industry has begun to gain strength. Continuity is yet to be seen. According to the company's statistical caliber, it achieved sales revenue of 1.5 billion yuan including tax in 2008. The actual revenue reflected in the report was 1 billion yuan, net profit was 73.55 million yuan, sales volume was 120 million bottles, and sales volume was about 50,000 tons of alcohol. In 2009, Shuanggou plans to reach 2.5 billion dollars in sales and 150 million in net profit. Judging from the situation in the previous three months, a net profit of more than 50 million has actually been achieved, and it is more likely that the above profit target will be achieved. Profit forecast and investment rating We predict that the company's food business will achieve earnings of 0.21, 0.13, and 0.14 yuan per share in 2009-2011, and that land concessions contributed 0.20 yuan per share in 2009. The growth of the company's traditional food business is weak, and the sustainability of profit growth in the liquor business remains to be seen. Based on comprehensive considerations, we give an investment rating of “hold”, so investors can focus on transactional investment opportunities. The catalyst for stock price performance 1. Earnings in the first quarter increased sharply. 2. Land revenue for Xuzhou Xincheng District was confirmed in the second or third quarter. 3. In the future, new mineral resources will be injected and new land revenues will be confirmed. Risk warning: If the prices of soybeans, sugar, and raw milk rebound sharply, expectations of a return in profits in the traditional food business would fall short. Multiple main businesses are running in parallel, and there may be a lack of matching management capabilities.