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【广发证券】重庆港九:果园港埠开建,西部水路枢纽成长性值得期待

廣發證券 ·  Oct 8, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Construction of Guoyuan Port will commence, and the container throughput capacity of Chongqing Port and Kowloon will be greatly increased. (1) The second phase of the Guoyuan Port Project plans to build 10 multi-purpose berths, 1 bulk cargo berth, and 3 commercial vehicle rolling berths; (the first phase of the project has only 2 bulk cargo berths), with a total planned investment of 6 billion yuan, completed in 2012, and all completed and put into operation in 2013. (3) The Guoyuan Port Phase II project design has a throughput capacity of 30 million tons/year, and a container throughput capacity of 2 million TEU/year. The planned third phase of the Cuntan container terminal project (design throughput capacity is 560,000 TEU/year) was cancelled. (3) Chongqing Port Logistics Group Co., Ltd., a major shareholder of Chongqing Gangjiu, holds 51% interest in Guoyuan Port and promises to transfer it to a listed company after completion. (4) We estimate that the design throughput capacity of the Chongqing Port and Kowloon container terminal will be 71/71/2.71 million TEU/year from 2010 to 2012, respectively, with a compound growth rate of 95%. The Chongqing Shipping Exchange was established, and the western waterway hub began to take shape. (1) The Chongqing Shipping Exchange was established in the Chongqing Bonded Port Area. Relying on the two pillars of an inland free trade zone and an inland waterway shipping center, Chongqing will comprehensively build a water transport center in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and a waterway hub in the west. At that time, Chongqing Port will become a cargo distribution center for all provinces in the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River. (2) The “Liangjiang New Area” brought a large number of enterprises to Chongqing, providing a guarantee for the future cargo volume of the port of Chongqing. In just 100 days since the opening of the zone, Chongqing's “Liangjiang New Area” attracted 100 billion dollars in investment; Hewlett-Packard and Foxconn's laptop projects with an annual output of 40 million units; Changan NEV industry base; and Gree Electric Appliance production base settled in Chongqing. (3) In the first half of 2010, the GDP of the “Liangjiang New Area” reached 50.3 billion yuan, an increase of 20.1% over the previous year, and is expected to reach 100 billion yuan for the whole year, an increase of 23% over the previous year; according to the Liangjiang New Area plan, the GDP of the Liangjiang New Area will reach more than 600 billion yuan by 2020, with a compound growth rate of 19.2%. Maintaining the “buy” rating for Chongqing Hong Kong and Kowloon, the initial target price is 14.94. Risk warning: Our rating of Chongqing's Hong Kong and Kowloon largely takes into account the favorable impact that the development of Chongqing's Liangjiang New Area has had on it. If Chongqing's progress in attracting coastal industries to the west slows down, it will have a big impact on our predictions.

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