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【国泰君安证券】重庆港九:立足保税港区,受益内陆开放

國泰君安 ·  Dec 29, 2013 00:00  · Researches

For the first time, coverage was given an “increase in holdings” rating. The company's container business is expected to benefit from the inland opening-up policy, and foreign trade container volume will experience strong growth. The company's earnings per share are predicted to be 0.29 yuan, 0.60 yuan, and 0.70 yuan respectively in 2013-15. Referring to the valuation level of A-share container port companies, and the future growth of Chongqing Hong Kong and Kowloon is superior to that of comparable listed companies in the same industry, the target price is 10 yuan, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 35 times in 2013, and a corresponding net market ratio of 1.6 times. The container business will benefit from an inland liberalization policy. The company's container terminal dominates the Chongqing region, and the economic development of the hinterland supports a steady increase in port throughput. The “replicable and promotable” model was proposed from the beginning of the establishment of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone. As one of the popular options for the free trade zone, Chongqing has advantages such as a hub port in the Yangtze River Basin and a bridgehead for the Yuzhen-New Europe railway, so there is a high probability that a free trade zone will be established in the future. The scope of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is mainly based on the former Free Trade Zone. If Chongqing establishes a free trade zone, it is likely to cover the Cuntan Free Trade Port Area. Chongqing Port 9 is the only container terminal operator in the Cuntan Port Area, and will directly benefit from the increase in foreign trade container volume brought about by trade facilitation policies. Furthermore, the successive implementation of policies such as the New Silk Road, the Yangtze River Economic Belt Plan, and state-owned enterprise reform will provide excellent development opportunities for the company. Business improvements will raise the level of profitability. The gross margin of the handling business increased markedly in 2013, and we believe this was mainly due to the company's measures to strengthen cost control. In the future, as the throughput of the Cuntan container terminal increases, the cultivation of Changshou Chemical Terminal becomes more mature, and the gradual withdrawal of low-yield projects (Jiulongpo Port, etc.), the company's ability to return on assets is expected to increase steadily. Catalysts: Chongqing establishes a free trade zone, and plans for the New Silk Road and Yangtze River Economic Belt are introduced. Risk warning: Competition in ports within the region has intensified, and the implementation of policies such as free trade zones has fallen short of expectations.

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