share_log

【国信证券】冠农股份2012年季报点评:农业主业减亏,钾肥收益稳增

國信證券 ·  May 2, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Investment income increased as losses in the main business decreased. EPS increased 8% year on year to 0.22 yuan, slightly exceeding expectations. Luo Potash's investment income contributed 0.27 yuan to EPS, an increase of 0.009 yuan over the previous year; hydropower companies contributed little during the off-season. The first three quarters still needed to absorb last year's high-cost ketchup. In the first quarter, the main business lost 0.056 yuan, an increase of 0.007 yuan over the previous year. Increased sales drove Luo Potash's performance up 45% month-on-month, and price increases drove a slight increase of 3% year-on-year. Production remained flat in the first quarter, up 40% from the fourth quarter of last year. Inventory settlement led to a high sales base of potassium sulfate in the same period last year (accounting for more than 1/3 of the year). In the first quarter, sales volume fell 6% year on year, and increased by more than 70% month on month. The settlement volume included a small number of high-priced tobacco tender contracts. Most of them were contracts after price cuts at the end of November last year. The average price rose 12% year on year, but fell 4% month on month. Value-added tax rebates were insufficient in the first quarter of this year, and price increases drove up performance growth. Sales of Luo Potash are relatively good, and volume costs are rising due to the release of production capacity. In the future, the quarterly sales price of Luo Potash can be expected to gradually rise last year, but many factors affected the decline in quarterly profits. This year, the industry was first restrained and then boosted, and value-added tax rebates were gradually put in place, which determined a steady increase in profits. The normal release of production capacity and large inventories determine that there is room for a 45% increase in sales today and next two years, and costs are clearly diluted (last year's sales included high-cost inventory under 10 years of low load). The Harrow Railway will be opened to traffic on October 30, which will help ease railway capacity and reduce costs by replacing roads. The halogen and salt field project, which will expand production in the second phase, will be completed in November this year, and future sales will double compared to last year. The comparative advantage of potassium sulfate clearly determines that the market is superior to that of potassium chloride. Future price increases will continue the joint price increase of 50 yuan by importers, Salt Lake, and Luo Potash for the first time this year, which has already activated the domestic market. Luo Potassium has an obvious cost advantage over processed potassium sulfate companies (which need to purchase high-grade potassium chloride). Prices and quantities were better than potassium chloride during the quarterly downturn; while the low prices of small enterprises in Qinghai (there are no warehouses in the east, prices can only be reduced after centralized shipping in winter) and low-grade products dominate the potassium chloride market. Spring planting concentrates on fertilizer consumption, importers and high-grade salt lake products will resume control of the market, and domestic potash prices will rise again in the second quarter (the price at which importers operate normally). The price of potash in Brazil rose as scheduled, and the short-term restorative upward trend is clear; in the long run, the high cost of new overseas potash fertilizer projects has once again boosted prices. In the future, domestic prices of potassium sulfate will follow the Chinese contract to make up for the increase in potash fertilizer imports. Risk warning: Abnormal market fluctuations and poor railway transportation will affect potash and potassium sulfate sales, and there is plenty of room for increase. The main business will inevitably reduce losses. Maintaining the “recommended” rating, Luo Potassium's profit will determine growth; new hydropower plants are put into operation, and power generation capacity will increase by 73% in the coming years; investment returns can be expected to increase. Ketchup production in the new production season in July will be halved to 600,000 tons year on year. Prices are expected to rebound and tomato purchase prices will drop 20%, controlling cash losses as the company's bottom line; lint has already reversed losses, and the sugar industry's profit is expected to decrease. The main business losses will be reduced to 0.22 yuan this year, so EPS for 12-14 will be 1.15/1.75/2.11 yuan.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment