Basic conclusion The vast majority of the nearly 6.6 million shares of San'an Optoelectronics have yet to be sold. Measured by fair value, they affected 2009 profit and loss through various topics such as LEDs. The stock price of San'an Optoelectronics has recently skyrocketed. In just 7 trading days, the stock price of San'an Optoelectronics has skyrocketed. The stock price has risen from 38.15 yuan to 55.02 yuan in just 7 trading days, an increase of 45%. Hainan Yedao holds shares in San'an Optoelectronics. Regardless of whether the company chooses to sell or include current profit and loss at fair value, Hainan Yedao's 2009 performance will increase dramatically as a result. After July 8, 2009, the 6.640,000 shares of Sanan Optoelectronics obtained by the company previously involved in the restructuring obtained were granted circulation rights in the legal sense of the word, but due to various intricate relationships, they were actually unable to circulate. As a result, the company also brought the other party to court. On September 8, the company reached a settlement agreement with San'an Optoelectronics. The company voluntarily locked in 2 million shares for one year until July 2010, and the remaining 46404 million shares were granted circulation rights. According to the provisions of the “New Accounting Law”, tradable financial assets must be measured at fair value, affecting current profit and loss. If Hainan Yedao sells a small amount of San'an Optoelectronics shares in 2009, the impact of the remaining shares on the company's profit will depend on the closing price of San'an Optoelectronics at the end of the year. We assume that the company has sold 2.3 million shares of San'an Optoelectronics this year (that is, about half of the actual negotiable shares; this assumption has not been confirmed by the company). At an average sale price of about 30 yuan, an investment income of about 60 million yuan can be realized, and the remaining 4.3 million shares may contribute a profit of 215 million yuan. This far exceeds our previous estimate. Due to active orders from dealers, sales of Coconut Island Liquor stopped falling and rebounded, and are expected to achieve a positive increase of about 10% throughout the year. However, since the first half of the year was a low season and was greatly affected by the economic slowdown, the Coco Island wine sales situation improved markedly after entering the second half of the year. On the one hand, the company has increased its marketing efforts. Furthermore, dealers are also actively preparing goods before the Spring Festival, driving a rapid month-on-month recovery in the sales scale of Coconut Island Liquor. We expect the growth rate of Coconut Island wine sales in 2009 to reverse the decline and achieve a positive monthly increase of around 10%。 Coconut Island Deer Turtle Liquor and Haiwang Liquor have always been the company's core profit sources. If the Coco Island Liquor sales situation improves, there is plenty of room for improvement in the profit of Hainan's Yedao main business. Cassava Ethanol Project: With Sinopec's advantages in government resources, there is a high possibility of obtaining licenses and subsidies, but it suggests the risk of uncertainty in the approval process. On December 8, 2009, Hainan Coconut Island issued a notice providing joint liability guarantee for the wholly-owned subsidiary, Laos Coconut Island Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. to apply for a medium- to long-term project loan of RMB 14 million from the Hainan branch of the China Development Bank. We believe this announcement at least shows that the company's tapioca ethanol project is still moving forward. Currently, the cassava ethanol project jointly invested by Hainan Yedao and Sinopec is still going through procedures in the Energy Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, and it is impossible to know the specific approval process, but we tend to think -- with Sinopec's advantage in government resources, the possibility that the company will obtain licenses and subsidies is too high. The company will cooperate with Sinopec to develop a tapioca ethanol project in Hainan. Among them, Hainan Yedao holds 60% of the shares, and Sinopec holds 40%. It is estimated that the first phase of the cassava ethanol project will have a design capacity of about 100,000 tons, and will require supporting capital expenses of about 200 million yuan; if actual production, sales and profit levels are fair, production may expand to 200,000 tons in the future. Ethyl alcohol is produced at current cassava prices, and the economic benefits are remarkable. The cultivation cycle of cassava is long (about 12 months), and production is greatly affected by weather and other factors. Demand is directly correlated with international oil prices, and changes in the supply and demand pattern will increase price fluctuations. In 07-08, the price of cassava in Hainan once soared to close to 1,000 yuan/ton, but in 2009 it basically returned to around 360 yuan/ton. The company chose to enter the cassava ethanol market at this time, and the economic benefits were remarkable. The company has a guaranteed supply of raw materials for cassava and has a cost advantage. The company has a 10,000 mu cassava base in Laos, with a master plan of 70,000 mu and a long-term plan of 150,000 mu. It can also drive farmers in the surrounding area to grow about 150,000 mu of cassava. After all production is reached, 200,000 to 300,000 tons of cassava produced in-house can be provided, and 200,000 to 300,000 tons of cassava can be purchased by agreement, which can solve the raw materials for the production of 60,000 to 80,000 tons of ethanol. In addition to domestic purchases of cassava, the company's supply of raw materials for ethanol production is not a problem. Since the supply of raw materials for cassava is guaranteed, the use of cassava to process ethanol has a cost advantage. If the company's tapioca ethanol project is approved in 2010 and successfully started, then 2011 will have a positive impact on the company's performance. Regardless of the production situation, as long as the approval from the Ministry of Finance is obtained, the capital market will give the company a high valuation. For details, please refer to the “Hainan Coconut Island Investment Value Analysis Report: Coconut Island Liquor Provides Safety Margins, and Tapioca Ethanol Opens Up Upside” (Guojin Securities Research Institute Liu Bo and Xie Gang) for details. Raise profit forecasts and maintain “buy” recommendations