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【方正证券】大湖股份:看好主业良好发展前景

方正證券 ·  Aug 31, 2012 00:00  · Researches

The incident company issued an interim report: operating income of 281.95 million yuan, an increase of 9.86% year on year; total profit of 20.26 million yuan, a decrease of 3.12% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 15.21 million yuan, a decrease of 13.69% year on year; and earnings per share were 0.04 yuan. Comment 1 The decline in performance did not change to a positive trend. The company promoted the development of the two main businesses, fishery products and liquor, according to the established brand strategy to guarantee an increase in operating income, but the decline in non-operating income led to a decline in net profit. The company has increased its investment in human and financial resources in brand building and actively promoted the non-public offering of shares to build a whole freshwater product industry chain. We believe that consumer recognition of the brand requires a process, and the company's current brand investment will definitely pay off in the future. 2. The fishery business follows a healthy and organic route in line with industry trends. The company Dahu Fish focuses on wild organic brands. The sales market has expanded from a market outside of Hunan Province. It has already opened stores at Walmart supermarkets in Beijing, which has a clear premium compared to the previous “lakeside sales” model. With national policy support and consumer demand for health and safety products, Dahu brand fish, which has scarce resources, ushered in a good development period. During the reporting period, fishery revenue was 196 million, an increase of 4.22%, and the gross profit margin was 32.33%, an increase of 1.68 percentage points. There is still plenty of room for improvement in future product profits. 3 Liquor revenue grew rapidly this year. Compared with the liquor market of nearly 20 billion yuan in Hunan, Deshan Liquor, as Hunan's most famous regional Hunan liquor, strives to restore the Hunan provincial market at the fastest speed. During the reporting period, liquor reached 53.48 million yuan, almost reaching the revenue level for the full year of last year. We expect sales revenue to exceed 200 million yuan in 2012, and maintain a high growth trend in the future 4 Profit forecasting and investment rating companies actively sort out assets, gradually divest businesses unrelated to the main business, and promote additional projects to improve the main industry chain. The company's fishery sales model has matured and is beginning to be replicated. The wine industry has obtained a well-known Chinese trademark and is fully controlled. We believe that the company's main business is on a rapid development track, and profits are expected to double year by year starting next year. The company's 2012-2014 EPS is expected to be 0.20, 0.41, 0.75 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 33, 16, and 9 times, maintaining a “buy” rating. 5 Risk warning: natural disaster risk, food safety risk.

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