The market capacity of China's health alcohol industry is growing rapidly at a rate of 30% per year. As the only two national brands in the health wine industry, Hainan Coconut Island has a clear core competitive advantage. Coconut Island Deer Turtle Liquor is the leader in China's high-end and mid-range gift health wine markets, while the restaurant market is dominated by Hubei Jinjiu;? Coconut Island Liquor has an oligopoly on the health wine market in the Yangtze River Delta region, accounting for more than 70% in Shanghai; the company's “push up and down” product portfolio is very reasonable. At a time when Yedao Deer Turtle Liquor is gradually aging, the launch of Coconut Island Haiwang Liquor successfully entered the catering channel and became a highlight of the company's wine industry growth; we believe that the golden wine launched by Wuliangye and Giant Group will not shake the market advantage of Coconut Island Health Liquor in the short term, but the long-term impact is yet to be seen. The rapid increase in automobile consumption has spawned a pressing demand for petroleum as an alternative energy source. We are very optimistic about the broad development prospects of fuel ethanol in China. Among all non-food ethanols, tapioca ethanol has the best economic benefits, and the company has the advantage of tapioca raw materials. The company has a 10,000 mu cassava base in Laos, which can solve the raw materials for the production of 60,000 to 80,000 tons of ethanol. In addition, domestic purchases of cassava and 1 million tons of raw materials for ethanol production are guaranteed. This is the key to the profitability of the industry. We expect the company's tapioca ethanol project to be approved by the end of 09, and that construction in 2010 will have a positive impact on the company's performance in 2011. Regardless of the production situation, as long as the approval from the Ministry of Finance is obtained, the capital market will give the company a high valuation. Our estimates show that as long as the oil price remains above 60 US dollars/barrel, there is plenty of room for development; according to the current price of cassava (close to cost), when the oil price is 80 US dollars/barrel, when the oil price is 80 US dollars/barrel, the 100,000 tonne tapioca ethanol project in Hainan will increase EPS by about 0.642 yuan. Without considering the profit contribution of the cassava ethanol project, we predict that Hainan Yedao will achieve net profit of 72.87, 88.63, and 100.17 million yuan respectively in 09-11, corresponding EPS of 0.439, 0.534, and 0.603 yuan. Before the cassava ethanol approval was implemented, the company's target stock price was 10.98-11.21 yuan; assuming the ethanol project was approved and contributed 0.287 yuan of EPS, the tapioca ethanol project would increase the stock price by at least 5.74 yuan, and the reasonable stock price range for Yedao in Hainan was at least 16.72-16.95 yuan or more, and a “buy” was proposed for the first time. Risk warning. With the exception of health alcohol, profits from major businesses such as trade, tapioca starch, and edible oil have fluctuated greatly. Non-recurring profits and losses such as San'an Optoelectronics's equity investment all have an impact on performance and even exceed the main business. Here, we solemnly warn of the risk of unstable profit forecasts and excessive valuations.