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【长城证券】两面针:造纸业务吸金,业绩反转尚早

長城證券 ·  May 24, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Key points: In mid-May, we conducted field research on a two-sided approach. Two sided needle is a giant enterprise in the domestic daily chemical industry. It used to be at the leading position in the toothpaste industry in China, but after 2000, the market was crowded out and encroached upon by foreign daily chemical giants Colgate (Colgate) and Crest (Crest), and it has become a second-tier brand in the toothpaste market. Since 2003, Two-sided Needle has begun to move towards diversified management, and has successively opened up businesses such as washing, women's hygiene products, papermaking, pharmaceuticals, sucralose, and real estate. Due to lack of experience in new businesses, the company's overall performance has been poor for several years. The main purpose of this survey is to analyze the operation of various businesses with a two-pronged approach. The performance of the company's toothpaste, toothbrush, and daily chemicals businesses was mediocre, making it difficult to contribute significantly to performance. The papermaking business has a public welfare aspect. In recent years, technological reform has consumed a large amount of cash. It is expected that it will be difficult to achieve profit until the technical reform is successful and the 1.2 million mu fast-growing forest base is built. The company's pharmaceutical business has improved in recent years, but it is not attractive enough due to its low base. The sucralose business is the company's only high-growth project in recent years, and we believe it has the possibility of going public financing in the future. Looking at both sides, the estimated break-even in 2011 is still a low level of performance, and it is expected that the company will continue to sell shares in CITIC Securities to maintain cash. At present, it is still too early to judge that the company's fundamentals have bottomed out, but the future reversal will mainly depend on papermaking and Jiekang. We believe that 2013 may be a year for the company's performance to recover. The logic includes that the energy-saving and consumption-reduction technology reform of the paper business and the construction of fast-growing forests may be effective; the possibility that Jiekang will operate and go public; the retirement of the current chairman of the board and the reforms brought about by the change in management. From a market perspective, we believe that a company's decline limit is determined by absolute value, while opportunities for growth depend on performance reversals and financial equity revaluations. Currently, the A-share market is in the dark before dawn, and there is still room for small-cap stocks to fall. We believe that the two-sided approach is in a period of business transformation. The limit of falling stock prices is revaluation, and once the main business reverses, it will provide great performance flexibility and valuation flexibility. Currently, the company has a total market value of 3.6 billion yuan, which is still about 20% of our estimated absolute value. We gave the company a “neutral” rating.

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