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【中信建投证券】海南椰岛:酒业扩产,地产可期,蛋白饮料成亮点

中信建投證券 ·  Mar 31, 2011 00:00  · Researches

1. Losses in the main business, investment income contributed profit The company's main business is in a state of loss. The profit mainly comes from the monetization of “San'an Optoelectronics” and the disposal of idle assets and sporadic real estate, which obtained an investment income of 269 million yuan. 2. Revenue from the health alcohol business declined slightly, and future expansion of production increased fourfold, and the demolition was successfully completed in August 2010. The production and sales of health alcohol were basically guaranteed during the same period. Liquor revenue was 526 million yuan, down 3.51% year on year; gross profit margin was 54.53%, down 3.46%. The company actively integrates marketing systems and carries out product planning. The influence in traditional markets such as Hunan, Liangguang, and Jiangxi remains the same, and sales of turtle wine have remained stable; the market share of a series of low-end products such as Sanyechun and Haikou Dagu on Hainan Island has maintained a steady increase, effectively consolidating the island market. The first phase of the technical improvement and expansion project was fully completed in early 2011, adding 30,000 tons of production capacity. Construction of the second phase of the project will begin within the year. The cycle is one year. After production is put into operation, the total production capacity of the new winery will reach 80,000 tons/year, and the output value of the wine industry can reach more than 1.8 billion yuan. 3. Real estate projects entered a profit “harvest period” in 2011. The company launched two real estate projects, “Coconut Island Plaza” and “Coconut Island Star Garden”, last year. Among them, the Coconut Island Plaza project received a reduction in land transfer tax and more than 26 million in municipal construction support fees. This year, the company will speed up construction and strive to return sales within the year. After the development of this block of real estate is completed, it will bring the company about 1 billion yuan in revenue and maintain a profit of about 300 million yuan. 4. Protein drinks have become a key company for future development, Chengyedao Ecological Agricultural Drinks Co., Ltd., has introduced a group of market talents who have worked in Wahaha and Huiyuan to vigorously develop Hainan specialty fruit drinks and food. It strives to achieve revenue of 120 million yuan this year, with huge room for future growth. During the sugar and wine fair, the company launched a new product, coconut milk, and entered the vegetable protein drink market in a big way. 5. The 2012 performance will exceed expectations. We believe that in 2011, the company's main health wine business will develop greatly, and investment income will drop sharply. The beverage company is in the early stages of market development, and the upfront cost investment is about 80 million yuan. Therefore, in 2011, the company's revenue will increase, but profits will decline. However, as oil prices rise, the company's tapioca ethanol business is likely to make substantial progress, which may be a boost for the company. In 2012, the company will enter a rapid development path, the real estate business will begin to contribute revenue and profit, beverage companies' sales may explode, and the production capacity of health alcohol will begin to be released, so there will be a sharp increase in revenue and profit in 2012. 6. Rapid increase in share capital. This year, it is possible that additional financing companies have already paid high allocations for two years in a row. In 2009, for every 10 shares, 3 shares were transferred to 5 shares, and in 2010, 5 shares were sent in dividends of 0.5 yuan for every 10 shares. The company's share capital increased rapidly, effectively resolving the barriers to acquisition by foreign capital, but the market value is still small, less than 5 billion dollars. There has been no financing since the company went public. Currently, the company's business development is diversified and capital requirements are high, so it is expected that additional issuance may begin this year. 7. Profit forecast and investment recommendations: We judge that in 2011-2013, the company's EPS was: 0.54 yuan, 1.08 yuan, and 1.44 yuan, respectively. Considering that the company's performance is very flexible, and the 2012 performance may exceed expectations, we gave the company a target price of 21.6 yuan, and recommended an increase in holdings. After dilution, 2011-2013 EPS was: 0.36 yuan, 0.72, and 0.96 yuan respectively, with a target price of 14.4 yuan.

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