Performance review: In 2009, Yedao, Hainan achieved a total net profit of 114 million yuan, EPS of 0.688 yuan, net profit of 666.258 million yuan, and EPS of 0.401 yuan in the first quarter of 2010. Compared with the huge loss of 238 million yuan in 2008 and the net profit of 4.85 million yuan in 09Q1, the strong reversal of performance was verified. The EPS achieved in 10Q1 was 0.401 yuan, which has surpassed the best performance level for the whole year in the past five years. Business analysis: In 2009, health alcohol sales increased by 14.5% and sales increased by 12.3%: In 2009, when the lagging impact of the financial crisis was concentrated, the company overcame adverse factors in the external environment and adopted a number of effective measures, such as moving the health wine marketing center back to the headquarters, increasing brand promotion efforts, developing marketable varieties, and adjusting incentive policies, etc., which further consolidated the development foundation of the health wine business. The annual sales volume of health alcohol increased by 14.5%, and sales increased by 12.3%. Among them, the Hainan market increased by 56.38% and the inland market by about 10%. The average sales price of Coconut Island Liquor rose slightly in 2009, but due to the rapid rise in costs, gross margin fell by 1.16 percentage points: we expect the company's average sales price of Coconut Island Deer Turtle Liquor to rise to 39 yuan/kg in 2009, while Coconut Island Haiwang Liquor was 25 yuan/kg. The average annual sales price was around 30.89 yuan/kg, a slight increase from 2008. Due to the rapid rise in costs, Coconut Island Liquor's gross margin in 2009 was about 57.99%, a slight decrease of 1.16 percentage points from 2008. Health alcohol sales are expected to increase by 40% in 10 years: Due to the economic situation returning to healthy growth, sales of most second-tier liquors in China are booming. We expect Coco Island Haiwang Liquor and Coconut Island Deer Turtle Liquor to continue the pattern of sharp increases in volume and price since the fourth quarter of '09, with annual health wine sales and sales growth rates of about 30-50%. The tapioca ethanol project has been approved in the first instance by the Development and Reform Commission, and is currently awaiting approval from the Ministry of Finance. If it receives financial subsidies (distributed according to volume), it is expected that the stock price will rise by 5.74-10 yuan. Multiple topics form a catalyst for valuation improvement: San'an Optoelectronics's equity still has a market value of 178 million yuan that can be monetized. If the judgment in the Zhonggu Sugar lawsuit is executed, it is expected that part of the arrears will be recovered, and the proposed bad debt preparations can be recovered. The company's 100,000 square meter real estate project is expected to top pre-sale by the end of this year. Out of prudence, our profit forecasts have not taken these scenarios into account. We believe the above topics are conducive to increasing the probability that the company's profit forecast exceeds expectations, and it also forms a catalyst for rising valuation levels. Profit adjustment profit forecast: Net profit is expected to reach 202.54/182.41/200.93 million yuan in 10-12, an increase of 77.4%/-9.9%/10.2% year on year, with an EPS of 1.22/1.10/1.21. Spin-off valuation: Liquor and other main businesses, 25×10PE and 20×11PE, have a reasonable valuation of 21.98-30.50 yuan, tapioca ethanol valued at 5.74-10 yuan, and a total target valuation of 31.98-36.24 yuan, with active purchases.
【国金证券】海南椰岛:保健酒增速提升,多重题材构成催化剂
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