Company profile:
Zanthoxylum nitidum is a daily chemical enterprise specializing in the production of oral hygiene products, washing products and hygiene products. The company specializes in personal and home care products, plant medicine, paper products and other products. The company is not only the founder of the traditional advantages of the national brand in the toothpaste industry, but also the first listed company in the industry.
Long-term view:
State-owned assets reform is an important concern of the market. We judge that the two-sided needle will first increase the major shareholders, improve the operation, release the performance, and then introduce strategic investors to launch the equity incentive program.
With the help of product structure adjustment and new products, we are optimistic about the road to the revival of the company.
Short-term view:
The reason why we focus on the two-sided needle at this point in time is that: 1) the company currently has 37.4 million shares in CITIC, more than 200 million shares in commercial banks, and 300 million in cash on the books. Realizable financial assets and cash of 1 billion.
The company owns 300 mu of industrial land in the area of Liuzhou East Ring Road. The value of commercial land in this area is more than 8 million yuan / mu. Considering the conversion of industry to commerce, the government will take half of the land, which is worth 1.2 billion yuan (in addition, the company's paper mill covers an area of 1300 mu on the riverside). Financial assets plus land appreciation is comparable to the company's market capitalization.
2) the company reshapes the brand of Zanthoxylum nitidum toothpaste, and is expected to usher in a new stage of development through product carding, repositioning, channel integration and marketing.
3) the original papermaking business, by adjusting the product structure, transferred from excess capacity of newsprint and pulp to household paper and pulp blending business, improved product profitability, and completed a turnround in about two years.
Profit forecast and rating
We believe that Zanthoxylum nitidum is an anti-transformation company, which has certain performance pressure in the short term, but we have certain expectations for the revival of the company in the medium and long term. Especially under the premise that the current company has a strong margin of safety and a small market capitalization, it is recommended to actively pay attention to the company.
We predict that the EPS of the company in 14-16 years is 0.04,0.14 and 0.27 yuan respectively. Considering the financial assets and land value of the company, we think that the market capitalization of the company is 28-3.15 billion yuan, corresponding to the target price of 6.3-7 yuan.
Risk Tips:
Product promotion is lower than expected.