We believe that after product upgrading and channel coverage from 2013 to 2014, the company will make every effort to accelerate advertising and brand building in 2015, and its core product, Zanthoxylum nitidum toothpaste, is also expected to enter the fast track of growth, although short-term cost pressure on market investment and lagging sales volume will be a drag on short-term performance. Maintain the company's EPS of 0.02 + 0.14 + 0.24 yuan in 2014-2016. Considering that the company has a lot of business at present, we judge that the reasonable value of each asset of the company is about 4.2 billion yuan, maintain the target price of 9 yuan and "overweight" rating.
2015 all-out efforts to speed up publicity and brand building, brand re-emergence is expected. In 2013, the company launched high-end new products to set a value benchmark, while upgrading and replacing the original products. In 2014, the company made all-out channel investment to restore channel coverage. In 2015, on the basis of the results of products and channels, the company joined Guangdong wide, focus Media and a number of online media companies to carry out publicity and brand communication work, taking into account that the company's 2014 growth work has been basically completed. At present, the company has abundant cash flow, and the company mainly cooperates with the key coverage areas for investment in 2015, so we can judge the effect. And with a multi-pronged approach of products, channels and publicity, we judge that the company's toothpaste business will grow by at least 50% in 2015.
Asset value is seriously undervalued, daily chemical business recovery is expected to lead to value repair. The company's business includes daily chemical, paper and chemical (sucralose), as well as finance (10.56% stake in Liuzhou Bank and more than 20 million shares of CITIC) and land assets (more than 400 mu of high-quality land resources in Liuzhou). We calculate that the reasonable value of its assets is about 4.2 billion yuan (a premium of about 40% over the current market value). We believe that the lack of prominence in the main business is the main reason for the discount of the company's assets, and its asset value is expected to be repaired to a reasonable level with the gradual recovery of the daily business of Zanthoxim.
Risk hint: the effect of channel coverage and marketing is not as expected, and other businesses continue to lose money.