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【方正证券】大湖股份公司事件点评报告:启动副业剥离,聚焦水产主业

方正證券 ·  Nov 29, 2011 00:00  · Researches

An announcement was issued on the 11.29th of the incident: (1) It was agreed to transfer 97.5% of the company's shares to Shanghai Hongshan Technology Development Co., Ltd., with a total transfer price of 72,212,000; it was agreed to transfer 2.5% of Dehai Pharmaceutical's shares held by the holding subsidiary Deshan Liquor to Hunan Hongxin Real Estate, at a transfer price of 1.85 million yuan. (2) The “Proposal on Initiating the Acquisition of 60% of the Shares of Jiangsu Yangcheng Lake Hairy Crab Co., Ltd.” held by Shanghai Hongxin Real Estate Co., Ltd. was reviewed and passed. Comment 1. The company has taken a key step in strengthening its main fishery business. For a long time, the company has adhered to the development strategy of the main fishery business and gradually divested its non-main business, and at the same time initiated the acquisition of shares in Yangcheng Lake Hairy Crab Company. According to information, Yangcheng Lake Hairy Crab Co., Ltd. produces more than 200 tons of hairy crabs and other freshwater products per year, with an annual revenue of nearly 80 million yuan. It has marketing outlets in 20 provinces and cities across the country, and has franchise stores in Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, Guangzhou, etc. After the acquisition is completed, it is expected that mutual use of sales channels will be realized, new channels will be opened up for the sale of hairy crab and big lake fish, and the future development of the company will be optimistic for the long term. The 300 million full cash subscription of the two major shareholders shows that the majority shareholder, Shanghai Hongshan, invested about 300 million yuan in cash to fully subscribe for the additional shares. The shareholding ratio rose from 21.7% now to 27.7%-29.9%. The additional capital is used in the aquaculture industry, from aquaculture and processing to sales, to improve the industrial chain. The project conforms to the national industrial policy and the company's overall strategic development direction, has good market development prospects and economic benefits, and can further enhance the company's profit level. Since the additional development project has not yet been approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission, the dust has not yet settled, and we believe that the company's performance still has potential for significant growth. 3. High-quality resources create the company's intrinsic value. The company has 1.73 million mu of large inland waters, accounting for 4.9% of the farmed lakes and reservoirs in China, ranking first in the country. As the country further advances the circulation of agricultural resource warrants, in conjunction with the “12th Five-Year Plan” for the fishery industry, encouraging aquaculture enterprises to release and reduce the proportion of aquatic products caught, the value of the company's water resources will gradually be recognized by the market. It is expected that Document No. 1 of 2012 will provide relevant support for fishery resources and technology, or become a catalyst for the release of the value of aquatic resources. 4 Profit Forecast and Rating We expect the company's EPS to be 0.34, 0.50, and 0.71 yuan for 2011-2013, corresponding PE to be 22, 15, and 11 times, respectively. Based on the industry and the company's PS and PEG valuation situation, we believe that within 6 months, the company's target price is 12.5 yuan, and the company's reasonable stock price is 15.0 yuan, maintaining the company's “buy” investment rating. 5 Risk warning: risk of natural disasters, risk of policy changes, etc.

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