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【招商证券】云南城投:结算周期致短期业绩波动、支付牌照稀缺推进转型

招商證券 ·  Aug 25, 2015 00:00  · Researches

The settlement cycle dragged down interim results, but did not change full-year expectations. The company's main business hopes to be enhanced by the group's synergy, and the transformation is based on a seamless connection between “Kangshi Real Estate” and the open economy of Kunming, while at the same time promoting the Internet layout with payment licenses. The company price only reflects the value of regional real estate companies and maintains a “Highly Recommended - A” investment rating. The phased decline in interim results was mainly affected by factors such as the settlement cycle and high base. The company announced the interim report, which achieved revenue of 280 million yuan (-58%) in the first half of the year, attributable to shareholders' net profit of 140 million (-261%) and EPS-0.17 yuan; there are three reasons for the sharp decline in performance: 1) The settlement cycle affected the first half of the year. The current settlement products were all completed 15 years ago, and projects to be completed in 2005 or concentrated in the second half of the year; 2) The completed stock projects have not been consolidated yet; 3) The investment income base for the same period last year was relatively slow; 3) The investment income base for the same period last year was relatively slow. With the settlement of completed projects in the second half of the year and the merger of acquisition projects, it is expected that the company will still be able to basically complete its annual revenue plan (4.3 billion dollars). The main business is actively expanding its layout, hoping to rely on group synergy to improve efficiency. The main business of the company is actively developing and expanding into core regions such as Beijing through acquisitions, etc.; the group level may bring synergy effects to the acquisition of Lemon International (HK: 03688) to enhance the ability of A-share entities to operate projects. At the same time, if the majority shareholders consolidate their assets according to previous terms to avoid competition in the same industry, profits of listed entities will increase significantly. The transformation is based on “Kangshi Real Estate”, and the scarcity of payment licenses promotes the Internet strategy. The transformation of “Kangshi Real Estate” and the exploration of the Greater Mekong region are seamlessly linked to Kunming's open economic reforms. At the same time, the proposed acquisition of principal payment: 1) is an online expansion of the company's Internet strategy (based on “Kangshi Real Estate” timeshare and community 020); 2) the payment company is the largest card issuer in the southwest region, has the only Internet payment license in Yunnan, and has large room for imagination in revenue and profit; 3) RMB internationalization acceleration vs. Yunnan Southwest Bridgehead vs. the company's Greater Mekong Strategy enhances the company's e-commerce and payment imagination space. Maintain a “Highly Recommended - A” investment rating. Taken together, the company's price only reflects the value of regional real estate companies; the “one road, one belt” superposition of the company's Greater Mekong plan, timeshare vacation, state-owned enterprise reform, and the free trade zone concept can provide a continuous catalyst. The irrational decline provided a good opportunity to open positions, maintaining the target price of 30X15PE in the first phase, corresponding to the price center of 15 yuan. With the gradual implementation of the catalyst, the market value is expected to impact even higher in the future. Risk warning: 1. The settlement progress and gross margin of major projects are lower than expected; 2. The progress of new economic layouts such as timeshare platforms is lower than expected; 3. The progress of state-owned enterprise reform is lower than expected.

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